Slippery Rock University President Cheryl Norton describes the state school’s looming debt crisis as a “perfect financial storm” — a convergence of flat state funding, no prospect of a tuition increase, falling student enrollment and rising expenses and personnel costs.

During a State of the University presentation Thursday on campus, Norton detailed how current financial trends, if left unchecked, could mushroom the university’s deficit to $28.9 million over the next three years. She said there will be no quick or easy way to confront the storm. The university will simply have to ride it out.

For the current school year, SRU’s budget projects $112.9 million in revenue and $118.1 million in expenditures, leaving a $5.2 million deficit. Assuming flat state revenue, falling enrollment and rising expenses, the 2014-15 academic year would have an estimated $10 million deficit; 2015-16 would have a $13.6 million deficit.

SRU ended the 2012-13 academic year in June with a $300,000 surplus, despite a loss of $500,000 in funding from enrollment decline, a personnel cost increase midway through the year and increased pension contribution and health care rates. However, the school’s fiscal status got big boosts from federal stimulus money and a string of record tuition rate increases — 3.7 percent in 2009-10, 4.5 percent in 2010-11, 7.5 percent in 2011-12 and 3 percent in 2012-13 offset the loss of stabilization funds and decreases in state appropriation.

Given the tuition hikes the previous four years, it’s unlikely another hike will be approved anytime soon. Unabated increases eventually would price the university out of its market.

Storms rise from climate conditions, and Slippery Rock University faces a climate shift along with its perfect storm. At its base is a changing, aging demographic; simply put, there are fewer potential students in the university’s primary service area. The dwindling freshman classes in recent years represent the dwindling college-age progeny of baby boomers.

The university’s market has shrunk, and now the university must shrink accordingly.

That most likely will entail staff and faculty layoffs or “entrenchments” — reassignments. It’s unfortunate, but any responsible response to the coming storm would include a staff shrinkage.

Lowering eligibility standards or watering down the curriculum would hurt a solid academic reputation the school has worked hard to maintain. Any attempt to keep the current payroll would be foolish as well as financially unsustainable.

Norton is making the right move involving the student body, faculty and alumni. There is no easy answer, but an informed and involved campus will dwell less on questions of blame and keep its focus on academic competency.