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Stocks enjoy great 1st half year

It has been a great first half of the year. It does not get a whole lot better than this.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 14.4 percent year-to-date (YTD), which is measured from Dec. 31 through July 4.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up 13.3 percent. The NASDAQ Composite is up 14 percent YTD. The broad market as measured by the Wilshire 5000, most stocks traded, is up 15.21 percent.

Small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 are up 16.7 percent, and MidCaps are up about 15 percent.

Funny thing is I don’t hear any investors cheering. Why is that? Shell shock.

Investors are still reeling from 2009 even though the markets are up about 140 percent since then.

Volatility is one issue for investors. It seems like we can lose three or four percent quickly and they don’t like that.

The past few trading days it has seemed that the Dow is up or down triple digits almost with regularity.

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Investors are frustrated. Fear made some buy bonds and bond funds over the last few years. Investors jerked more than $60 billion from bond funds in June hastened by a blip up in interest rates.

One of the things I learned early in my career was that you can lose almost as much money in the bond market as in the stock market and some investors don’t understand that. Staying short, buying shorter maturity bonds is about the only way to fight that if you are a bond buyer.

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Speaking of the bond market, rates have moved up a little, but in comparing them to history, they are still low. Those who are income investors are still hurting for yield.

Money market yields are generally below one half of one percent. Nationwide five-year certificates of deposit are around 1.2 percent. The 10-year treasury is yielding around 2.5 percent.

It is difficult to live off these rates.

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Foreign investment indexes are lagging. The Dow Jones Global Index, not including the U.S., is hanging around break even.

The problem is timing the markets, and no one can do it. If we sell all the foreign markets, then we risk a move up if they turn. If we were that smart, we would have sold them a couple of years ago. Japan is the exception up almost 35 percent for the year.

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Gold has been getting bombed, down about 25 percent this year to $1,252 per ounce.

Oil, on the other hand, has been moving up in price to a little more than $100 a barrel.

Natural gas has been all over the place, up about 10 percent YTD.

Commodities as measured by the DJ-UBS Commodity index, are down almost 9 percent for the year. Look at the stuff we eat. Orange juice tumbled and is now edging higher; Wheat is at its lowest point in months as is soy bean oil.

Corn prices are fairly stable as is cattle. Hogs are trading higher; Sugar is lower as is coffee.

Prices are just all over the place.

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By the way, big private buyers, which include hedge funds, have been buying blocks of houses, foreclosed and otherwise, from banks and others, to fix up and rent. This has created a shortage of houses for those wanting to get into the market.

This is not widespread among the states but Florida appears to be a target.

Why are they doing this? They figure that they will fix them up, rent them, and then in five years after the housing market is stronger, sell them for big profits.

Real estate agents are upset because these buyers go around the agents to buy.

No matter what you hear, in my view, most hedge funds are run by people who are not stupid.

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The wife wandered into the man cave the other day as I was reading a magazine. As usual, she wanted to know what I was reading.

I love it when she does that. I told her there was an article about an anthropologist who was investigating South American folk remedies for various ailments. I read to her that his companion, a tribal witch doctor, told him that some leaves they were investigating contained a cure for constipation.

The anthropologist expressed his doubts and the witch doctor said, “Let me tell you sir, with fronds like these, you don’t need enemas.”

I looked up and the wife was running from the room. She obviously didn’t think that was funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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