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Financial markets start a pullback

OK, let’s take a look at what is going on. As I write this on June 5, the markets have started a pullback. To this point it’s about 3.5 percent from the highs.

Nothing unusual about that. Many folks have been wondering why it has taken so long.

We had an almost straight up market for over seven months, so this appears to be a normal happening. As to how long or how down we go, who knows?

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Even with this pullback the Wilshire 5000 Index of most stocks traded is still up over 15.5 percent to date. Those are impressive numbers in anyone’s book.

I don’t think many investors are impressed. In my view, they still are shellshocked from 2008 and fearful. If you were a contrarian, that might make you bullish.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 15.8 percent, the Standard and Poor’s 500 is up 14.4 percent and the Nasdaq Composite is up 14.1 percent. Small stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 are up 15.6 percent, and the midsized companies as measured by the Standard and Poor’s MidCap 400 are up about 14.9 percent.

I also look at the Investor’s Daily Mutual Fund Index, which is an index that tracks 20 mutual funds with various investment objectives. That index is up 13.2 percent.

So, no matter how you look at it, most of the United States markets and most stocks are doing well.

The foreign markets are another story. Generally both the large markets and the emerging markets have been sloppy. The Dow Jones World index excluding the U.S. is only up about 3.7 percent.

Our foreign investments are not helping us so far this year. So far we are the only game in town.

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Interest rates remain low even though they have weakened slightly. Low rates are bad for investors and good for borrowers.

The prime rate is 3.25 percent, a 30-year mortgage is around 3.92 percent and the 15-year fixed is around 3.39 percent. Both those numbers are well off the lows.

New car loans are also costing a little more at 2.63 percent for a 48-month term, Still cheap.

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In the commodities area, crude oil is about $93 a barrel which is up 1.6 percent for the year. Natural gas is up over 19 percent about $4 per million cubic feet, but is really down from the $12 range some time ago.

The gold buffs are not happy. Gold is down 16.5 percent for the year at $1,397 per ounce, which also puts it down about 25 percent from the highs. Silver is down but seems to have stabilized.

Corn has started an up trend after selling down a good bit back in May, Cattle remains steady, Coffee is falling. Get ready to buy some coffee cheaper, perhaps, but don’t lose any sleep over it.

Sugar continues to fall in price to levels not seen in a while,

Hogs are trending higher, and soybeans have zoomed much higher in price recently.

If that holds, the farmers raising them will be happy campers.

If you drink orange juice, those prices are higher. Cotton had tumbled to prices of five months ago but is moving back up.

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Somebody asked me the other day what is the biggest mistake investors seem to make? The one that I hear about most often is “Well everything is doing well now so I’m not going to make any changes.”

I have to laugh. If you have been disappointed in your investments in the past, and now you have gotten most or more of your money back, now is the time to make the changes. Whether it is your adviser, your account structure, whatever.

We have had a great run here. Don’t miss the opportunity to make some changes.

Guess what? The people up there who are OK now and not making any changes, are the same people who likely will be disappointed again because they won’t make a decision.

Some people have raised a little cash, taken some shekels off the table, some have sold some mistakes, and some are looking for future opportunities. I like that.

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My assistants got me a birthday card the other day. On the outside it says, “A couple of guys your age went out to hit a few bars one night. By 10 p.m. one had six beers and the other had three beers and two shots of Jack. Which one got hammered first?”

On the inside it says “Trick question, no one your age is out at 10 p.m.”

I don’t think they’re funny.

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