History says August is the cruelest month
Far be it from me to be the bearer of bad news, but according to Massachusetts Financial Services August historically has been the worst performing month for the S&P 500 since 1990. In case you have interest, December has been the best month since 1990. Think snow.
We’ve talked a little in the past about this but the numbers have changed. People have been used to saying, “The markets have returned 0 for the past 10 years.”
Well, as we move forward the S&P has returned about 5.3 percent a year for the past 10 years, according to Massachusetts Financial Services. As you know, it has not been a straight line up. The year 2008 and early in 2009 were really disheartening, but if you have hung in there you may have done OK.
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Let’s take a look at what is happening so far this year. As of the close of business on July 31, the Wilshire 5000 index of most stocks traded is up 10 percent year to date. The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up 9.7 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 6.5 percent. The Russell 2000 index of small stocks is up 6.2 percent and the S&P Mid Cap index is up 7 percent.
If you take a look at the major global markets, not including the United States, the returns are hovering around 2 percent.
The best major foreign markets are Germany, up over 14 percent, Singapore the same, and India up 11.
Speaking of India, how about losing power to 600 million people, which is about twice as many people than are in the U.S. Hard to imagine.
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So what does all this mean? It means it is an interesting year.
I have not seen one like this in recent memory. If you own nothing but U.S. Blue Chip stocks, the better known names, then you likely have done OK. If you own a diversified portfolio with stocks from most of the above mentioned areas, then you have not done so well.
Normally when the U.S. markets are doing well, so are just about all the other groups. You could say that the foreign markets are having some effect on our markets, and you would be correct.
I am beginning to sound like a broken record because that is all I talk about. It’s Greece, Spain, Italy, blah, blah, blah, blah. Unfortunately that is the way it looks to me.
Now, you may ask, our economy is not doing so hot so why is the market up 10 percent. My personal view is that this could be a Mitt Romney rally.
The consensus of market pundits is that if President Obama wins re-election, the market goes down, but if Romney wins, the market goes up.
Now having said that, remember that I don’t know any more than anyone else. However, I am hearing that from some pretty smart people, and since I like smart people, I want to align myself with them.
About 90 days to the election, so we will find out pretty darn soon.
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Looking at commodities and the drought out West it does not appear that food is going to be getting any cheaper. If you take away large yields of corn, soybeans, and grain, look out.
Not only are the farmers and ranchers feeding us, but they also feed the animals we use, so higher is higher.
Crude oil is down almost 11 percent this year. Gasoline has really not followed. Natural gas is actually up 7 percent. It has made a huge rally. That is interesting.
Gold is up almost 3 percent. Not much happening there.
I like to follow trends and over the last year gold is actually down a little, Natural gas is still down about 25 percent while most of the grains are up. Beef is up. Coffee is down more than 25 percent. Cotton is down about 30 percent. Copper is down about 25 percent,
Gasoline is just barely down, Butter and cheese are down, but eggs are up about 50 percent. Hogs and pork bellies are a little higher.
Much the same as it has been in the past, if you eat meat it costs more, but if you can eat butter and cheese and wear cotton clothes, you are fine.
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The wife came into the Man Cave the other day and inquired as to what I was doing. I said “I am writing music.”
She raised that one eyebrow, looked down at me, and said “How is it going?” I said “MUSI is as far as I’ve gotten.”
She doesn’t think I’m funny.
Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg portfolio manager.
