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Tax cuts, market discussed

The second most frequently asked question I get these days is about the Obama administration's supposed intent on letting the Bush tax cuts expire.

Now most people think that the big bad rich people are going to suffer the most. I don't know how you define rich people but let's assume that earning $200,000 plus per year qualifies.

It appears that those people will be taxed at about 39.6 percent marginal tax rate, up from 35 percent, or about a 13 percent increase. That would affect about 4 percent of the population.

Now if you are in the 10 percent tax bracket, which would likely include lower wage earners and perhaps retired people, your taxes will go up to 15 percent from 10 percent. If you do the math, that is a 50 percent increase in taxes.

Brett Arends writing in The Wall Street Journal on July 28 wondered what the tax increase might be for everyone but the rich. He writes: "What about married couples filing jointly? A couple earning $80,000 a year in adjusted gross income might pay about $2,200 extra."

If you fall into that category, and if those tax breaks are left to expire, then you will have almost $200 a month less money to spend.

The biggest hit that I see to investors is the rate on dividends going from a max of 15 percent to your marginal tax bracket. So if you are in the 30 percent marginal tax bracket, then dividends will be taxed at 30 percent, or double. You don't have to be rich to feel that.

Of course, you should talk with your tax adviser about all this, if and when, the tax cuts expire.

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By the way, the No. 1 question I get asked is "When is the stock market going up?"

If you watched the stock market, August was painful, wasn't it? It was slow. The volume of stocks traded was about half the normal rate.

Let's look at the facts. August was the worst August since 2001. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index was down about 4.7 percent.

Year-to-date through Aug. 31 the S&P is down 5.7 percent, the Dow Jones industrial average is down 4 percent, and the NASDAQ Composite is down 6.8 percent. The Investors Daily Mutual Fund Index is down about 4.5 percent.

Interestingly the Wilshire 5000 index, which measures most stocks traded, is down 3.5 percent. That's because Mid-Cap stocks, stocks of the medium sized companies, are about even for the year.

The foreign markets also have been backing up. The MSCI EAFE index is down 9.8 percent for the year. Of the 23 markets I follow only six have positive numbers.

Our buddies in Venezuela are up over 17 percent, South Korea is up over 3 percent, Sweden up over 5 percent, Canada and Singapore up over 1 percent and India up almost 3 percent.

September normally for the past 20 years has been the weakest month of the year for stocks, but last year it was up so go figure. I vote for up.

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I still feel pretty good here. The markets, while down for the year, have really been doing ok in relation to all the bad news out there. You would think we should really be struggling but so far so good, and fall is on the way.

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Commodity markets are mixed. Oil has been behaving about $72 a barrel which is down 9 percent for the year. Natural gas is down 31 percent for the year; gold is up about 14 percent to around $1,248 an ounce. The gold bugs are giggling.

In an area I like to watch, food and the like, corn and soybeans remain high; same story with coffee and sugar. Hog prices have been a little weak; cattle ran up and then seemed to pull back while still high. Cotton is going through the roof; wheat has finally started to retreat.

Most of this is not good news if you eat much.

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A lady went to a Pittsburgh Steelers game and had tickets on the 50 yard line. She sat down and soon a man comes over and asks if anyone is sitting in the empty seat beside of her. She says, "No, my husband passed away, and so I am here alone; that was his seat." The man asks "Couldn't you find a friend or relative to come with you?" The woman answers, "No, they're all at the funeral."

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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