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Retailers adjust for Christmas

Smaller orders also are lower priced

Determined not to repeat last year's holiday season, when retailers amassed so much stock they offered rampant discounts to clear it out, stores are leaning toward more practical and lower-priced items.

And they're cutting holiday inventory 5 percent to 10 percent from last year's levels and perhaps 20 percent at luxury stores, said Craig R. Johnson, president of consulting group Customer Growth Partners.

Gadget stores will offer more netbooks — the smallest, least expensive laptops — and smaller flat-panel TVs, said Shawn DuBravac, economist at the Consumer Electronics Association.

Fewer toys will cost more than $100, said Jim Silver, a toy analyst at timetoplaymag.com, with the bulk going for $25 or less.

And fewer holiday dresses will have sparkles, as stores seek fashions that can be worn for many different occasions, said Kathy Bradley-Riley, senior vice president of merchandising at The Doneger Group.

L.L. Bean will stock up on slippers, sleds, snowshoes and skates because it predicts more customers will forgo ski vacations, said spokeswoman Carolyn Beem.

Online jewelry retailer Blue Nile plans to order classic pieces like diamond stud earrings and will emphasize keepsake jewelry that's meant to last, Chief Executive Diane Irvine said.

If merchants do it right, shoppers will feel like they are in a gallery or museum with an edited focus on specific items, said Wendy Liebmann, president of WSL Strategic Retail consultancy.

"What (stores) had done was just clutter up," she said. "It has to be precious, not in an expensive way, but it has to be special enough to coax people out of their emotional and physical closets to come and buy again."

•<b> A KEY SEASON: </b>For many retailers, including consumer electronics chains, holiday business accounts for as much as 40 percent of sales. For toy sellers, it's 50 percent, while mall-based clothing chains usually make just 20 percent of their revenue at the end of the year.•<b> THE GOODS: </b>Clothing, accessories and home furnishings make up about 45 percent of overall holiday sales, while consumer electronics account for 35 percent and toys 15 percent. Collectibles and other items account for the rest.•<b> CHANGING THIS YEAR: </b>Toy and luxury retailers, usually the first to order each year, are hedging their bets against the economy by ordering smaller quantities and less expensive items. This caution likely will mean fewer choices and lower discounts. Toy sellers, for instance, are ordering what they think will be best-sellers but delaying their buying on many other playthings they're not sure about.•<b> LONG LEAD TIMES: </b>Luxury stores order Christmas items six to nine months ahead because the products are usually made overseas and involve an intricate design process. Major toy sellers — including Wal-Mart, Target and Toys R Us — start ordering as early as the previous December to satisfy their need for volume as well as new designs. Department stores sometimes must order house-brand staples made in Asia as long as a year in advance.•<b> UP TO THE MINUTE: </b>For trendier fashions, merchants order in the summer so they can get the latest fads. Consumer electronics stores also generally order during the summer to take advantage of technology advances, while smaller and independent stores of any variety also can wait until summer since their orders are small and easier for a manufacturer to fit in.<b>Sources: Ken Perkins, president of research company RetailMetrics; retail consultant Walter Loeb; retail strategist Michelle Bogan at Kurt Salmon Associates; Jim Silver, an analyst at Timetoplaymag.com. </b>

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