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Sluggish economy reveals lessons on saving and 'paradox of thrift'

The cover of the current issue of Newsweek magazine features an image of Uncle Sam, striking a pose reminiscent of a World War II Army recruiting poster, but this time saying "Iwant you...to start spending."

After years of being told Americans need to save more and spend less, we are now coming to understand economist John Maynard Keynes' notion of the "paradox of thrift."

As the U.S. financial markets became frozen due to the global banking crisis and the stock market tumbled by more than 40 percent from its 2007 highs, consumers became cautious. Falling house prices and rising unemployment only made matters worse.

In response, consumers have boosted their savings and trimmed their spending. And in the short run, that behavior is good for consumers, many of whom were for too long living on debt and spending money they extracted from the now-eroded equity in their homes.

The paradox of thrift has become apparent in recent months. Increased personal savings, while individually a positive, produces negative economic consequences when expanded across the nation, worsening the economic downturn.

Newsweek's cover story points to the need for American consumers to begin to spend again — prudently — and to start investing in the stock market, or to even take risks in new business ventures. Consumer spending, after all, amounts to nearly 70 percent of the U.S. economy, and without consumers increasing their spending, the national economic recovery will not happen. And without a U.S. recovery, a global recovery is unlikely.

When one individual or a single company reduces spending or pays down debt, it is good for that individual or that company — until that action is replicated on a broad scale by millions of people and thousands or companies. One person's reduced spending can lead to another person losing his or her job, and that person's subsequent drop in spending can cost another person his or her job. And the downward spiral continues.

Newsweek's article rightly points out that boosting savings makes microeconomic sense, but causes macroeconomic harm.

The national savings rate in January was estimated at 5 percent of disposable income, up from 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

By increasing their savings and reducing debt, Americans have intensified the current economic downturn, but it's also true that they might be in a good position to get the economy moving once they begin to spend again. With a savings cushion, home buyers can afford a reasonable down payment and thus reduce their mortgage. They will also find bargains in many parts of the country.

So the message of spending being good for the country that produced criticism of President George W. Bush following the 9/11 terrorist attacks is being cautiously repeated by government officials and economists now that the country is suffering through a difficult recession.

The reckless spending behavior seen leading up to the current financial crisis was unsustainable, so more prudent spending is needed now. But, for those with low debt and secure jobs, some increased spending will help reverse the downward economic trends.

Americans must not forget the lessons that this economic crisis has to teach about greed, responsibility, regulation and politicians. But while some things have to change, consumer spending remains a critical element to a healthy economy.

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