Pennsylvania residents who feel they were shortchanged on property tax relief that was supposed to materialize after casino gambling was implemented should be skeptical about the promised benefits from Gov. Ed Rendell's proposal to legalize and tax video poker.

Rendell aides have projected that video poker could deliver as much as $550 million a year for tuition aid to low- and middle-income students entering community colleges and the 14 universities in the State System of Higher Education.

But if the property tax benefits emanating from casino gambling are an indicator of the benefits that might be expected from legalized video poker, the students targeted for help shouldn't expect any windfall. If they do, they are likely to be disappointed.

As recounted in an article in the Feb. 9 edition of the Butler Eagle, Rendell told lawmakers, "You better listen, because there are thousands of families who today have decided they can't afford to send their kids to college, who might depend on this.

"Ladies and gentlemen, we are not talking about an expansion because video poker already exists, and it's thriving here in Pennsylvania."

As the article suggested, it's unlikely that this Rendell proposal will gain approval quickly enough to benefit the targeted students in the fall.

Casino gambling was legalized 18 months into Rendell's first term, fulfilling a 2002 Rendell campaign promise. The slots bill was approved in July 2004 after enough lawmakers were satisfied that the bill would deliver benefits for their home districts beyond property tax cuts.

That is the big danger facing the video poker proposal — that a significant portion of the tax benefits derived from legalizing video poker will be directed to something other than helping low- and middle-income students with tuition.

Legalizing video poker in the commonwealth's bars and private clubs is a two-decades-long issue rejected by one of Rendell's Democratic predecessors — Gov. Robert P. Casey — partly on the fear that it would attract organized crime.

Infiltration by organized-crime interests also was one of the fears expressed by casino gambling opponents after Rendell's election and his push for that initiative began in earnest.

Similar fears will be resurrected and repeated as Rendell's video poker legalization and taxing initiative takes a place on the legislative stage in the state capital.

Meanwhile, there is the issue of whether Rendell's student-aid plan should be extended to the four state-related institutions, which are absent from Rendell's tuition-help-for-students proposal. Those schools are Penn State University, the University of Pittsburgh, and Temple and Lincoln universities.

A rally of several dozen students and staffers at Penn State, in response to the governor's announcement, stressed that low- and middle-income students are hurting there, also.

Rendell's proposed 2009-10 budget calls for a $21 million cut in state funding for Penn State for the next academic year.

At this point, the governor's video poker proposal is just that — a proposal. It's impossible to know how far the proposal will go in the General Assembly and how much it will be modified from what Rendell currently envisions.

However, it's a safe bet that the proposal won't be any kind of a godsend. Times still will be tough for many low- and middle-income students.

The more lawmakers get their individual fingers into the video poker pot for their pet interests, the less students will benefit — just as homeowners' casino gambling benefits were heavily diluted by directing slots money to uses other than property tax relief.

Rendell knows that, and so do lawmakers. With that in mind, parents hit with high tuition costs shouldn't embrace the foolish notion that their college financial burdens are on the verge of being significantly lightened.

They aren't.