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OTHER VOICES

The latest economic headlines conjure up memories of Jimmy Carter in a sweater. Inflation is up. Gasoline prices are hitting records. The economy is sputtering. The ayatollahs are misbehaving. If you change the channel, you almost expect to see the Fonz.

For all of that, the American economy is not headed back to the disco days of the dreary 1970s. What the economy is going through today is a new kind of funk, unlike anything that's come before.

Today's rising gas prices are not a blip created by OPEC squeezing supplies, as it did in the 1970s; they are a new fact of life caused by growing international demand.

Something else that's unusual: Inflation is going up, even as American economic growth slows down. America is the world's biggest purchaser of nearly everything. When we slow our buying, that usually dampens inflation at home and around the world. That's not happening this time. It suggests that Asia's rise is limiting America's ability to influence its own economic destiny.

Consider the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve: The standard medicine for a weakening economy is to cut interest rates; the Fed has cut rates by more than half in the last year. Those cuts have helped stave off the worst effects of recession.

But now the Fed's hands are tied by inflation worries. In America, slow growth has stopped inflation from spreading much beyond food and fuel. Prices have been rising at a 4.9 percent annual rate over the past three months. If you don't count the rising food and fuel prices, the annualized inflation rate is a more tolerable 1.8 percent.

This may not last. General inflation could break out quickly if the economy picks up and producers feel free to pass rising raw material prices along to consumers. So the Fed is sitting tight on interest rates for now, hinting that it might even raise them by fall. This tough talk probably is just that — talk. Raising interest rates, which generally increases unemployment, right before a presidential election would be politically risky.

As the U.S. economy has slowed, those of Europe and, especially, Asia have rolled merrily along, which also is something new. It used to be that when America sneezed, other nations caught a cold.

The nice part about the strong Asian and European economies is that they keep markets for U.S. exports strong, which, in turn, keeps Americans working. But it also pushes prices higher for oil and other commodities, especially when measured in our shrinking dollars.

The consequences of America's diminished world economic clout are unclear, but they won't be pleasant.

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