FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - Mike Holmgren didn't try to disguise reality when he spoke to reporters this week.

"I was expecting our record to be much better than it is," said the Seattle Seahawks coach.

A few thousand miles away, St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz also was coping with an underachieving season, though he seemed a lot less somber. He said in a news conference that Cardinals manager Tony La Russa had phoned to advise him that "three of the last four champions in baseball have been wild-card teams."

Added Martz: "Who knows? Anything can happen."

One thing is certain to happen. Either Holmgren or Martz, whose teams lead off the 2004 NFL playoffs on at 4:30 p.m. Saturday, is going home with the sting of failure.

The loser of this NFC wild-card game would be foolish to think he's just had a good year because "we made the playoffs." Both were expected to make it and the Seahawks were a fashionable pick to reach the Super Bowl, but Seattle barely won the NFC West with a 9-7 record.

As for the wild-card Rams, with all their explosive offense, a loss here would mean an 8-9 season - hardly reason to rejoice.

And so the games begin, and there are ample plot lines. After the Rams-Seahawks game in Seattle, the New York Jets play at San Diego at 8 p.m., and on Sunday, Denver is at Indianapolis at 1 p.m., followed by Minnesota at Green Bay at 4:30.

The top two seeds in each conference - Philadelphia and Atlanta in the NFC and Pittsburgh and New England in the AFC - have the week off, and they're using it to get tired bodies refreshed and injured bodies fit. Whether La Russa realizes it or not, having that week off is a major benefit.

Only twice in the past 23 years, in the 1997 and 2000 seasons, has the Super Bowl winner had to play on the wild-card weekend.

Of the eight teams that play this weekend, the Colts are given the best chance of reaching the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning, with a record 49 touchdown passes, had the greatest year of any NFL quarterback, and he is surrounded by a galaxy of dangerous receivers and protected by a cohesive offensive line.

If the Colts win, and this will be their 10th game of the year in a passer-friendly indoor stadium, they're bound for New England, where last year in the AFC Championship Game Manning threw four interceptions and was sacked four times on a sloppy field that seemed made to order for the Patriots.

"I don't know that there's anybody that wouldn't rather play a playoff game at home than on the road," Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy said. "The thing you can't do is think, 'Well, this one's easy. We have this one in the bag. We'll win this home game and get ready to go to New England.'"

No one doubts the Colts' offense. It's the defense, which has 16-sack man Dwight Freeney and little else, that makes it vulnerable.The Chargers have been a big enough surprise to earn Marty Schottenheimer Coach of the Year honors, but all four losses, with only one win, have been to teams in the playoffs.While Green Bay is the No. 3 seed in the NFC, there's a Grand Canyon between their quality and that of the Eagles and Falcons. Nevertheless, their game with the Vikings could be the best of the weekend. They played twice already this season with the Packers winning both times by the same score, 34-31, and both times on field goals by Ryan Longwell with no time remaining to play.Both clubs have shown little defense in the second half of the season, though Green Bay coach Mike Sherman is trying to sound unconcerned. "We're ranked higher defensively than Indianapolis, and people think they have a shot at it. So I would think we do," he said.The Jets are in San Diego, where they beat the Chargers 34-28 in Week 2, and Chargers quarterback Drew Brees calls that ancient history."We feel like we really owe it to the Jets," Brees said. "We were embarrassed by that game, the way we played and at home. We haven't lost at home since. So for them to come in and beat us, that leaves a little salty taste in your mouth."This is not a bad matchup for the strong Jets defense, which has the sort of fleet linebackers it takes to clamp down on tight end Antonio Gates, who is Brees' No. 1 receiving target.But New York also has to deal with running back LaDainian Tomlinson, who is fully fit after fighting injury much of the year, and it has to find its own offense. Curtis Martin ran to the NFL rushing title, but quarterback Chad Pennington has not had the big season expected. New York has lost three of its past four games.Seattle and St. Louis are unlikely to reach the NFC Championship Game, but the matchup hasn't lost its flavor. The Rams won both meetings this year, coming from 27-10 down in the fourth quarter on Oct. 10 to win in OT. The Seahawks were 3-0 going into the game, 6-7 since, and QB Matt Hasselbeck has been inconsistent.But it's playoff time, and that means the intensity kicks up one more level and the anxiety factor increases, especially for teams such as the Vikings and Jets, who have no momentum going into this weekend."Make sure nobody pours poison in your Kool-Aid today," Jets coach Herman Edwards told players in an effort to laugh off the sting of recent losses.