Trends for '04 correct
We hate to brag (honest, we do), but we pretty well nailed it with our forecast of hot personal technology trends for 2004.
1: We predicted that laptop prices would fall, as manufacturers found more efficient ways to produce one of the most expensive parts: the screen. Indeed, the average price of notebook computers dropped from about $1,145 in 2003 to $1,033 this year.
2: We expected that a wireless technology known as Bluetooth would catch hold in 2004, allowing computer makers to offer wireless keyboards and mice and other cordless devices. Sure enough, Apple Computer's new iMac G5, the sleek, all-in-one flat-panel computer, featured just such a setup.
3: The first one-megapixel camera phones not only debuted in 2004, but nearly became obsolete. By the end of the year, LG Electronics was developing a six-megapixel camera phone.
4: We correctly forecast that the iPod's resounding popularity would attract competition, forcing Apple to offer a less expensive product to remain competitive - the $250 iPod Mini. But so far, no rival product has achieved the same white-hot popularity.
5: But when it comes to the prospects for the video iPod, we jumped the gun. Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs even took the unusual step in the fall of denying such a product was in development.
6: Faster cellular phone networks did finally reach 13 big cities in 2004, as Verizon Wireless rolled out third-generation network access in cities such as Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Washington, D.C. It provides high-speed wireless Internet access at download speeds of about 500 kilobits per second. Verizon will spend about $1 billion in the coming year to deploy the service nationwide.
7: And, for the record, you aren't paranoid. Somebody is watching you in 2004. Surveillance technology continues to be ever more broadly deployed. In December, Congress revealed that the United States has embarked on a new type of intelligence program - spy satellites designed to orbit the Earth, undetected. No one has yet to learn how much the program will cost or what it's supposed to monitor. But it will doubtless augment the global eavesdropping network of satellites, aircraft and drones.
8: And while we're discussing voyeurism, video Web logs did indeed come into vogue in 2004. It took all forms - from chronicling the Democratic National Convention to tagging along with Luuk Bouwman as he chronicled his exploration of Peru's Machu Picchu and travels along the Inca trail.
9: Lean, gaseous plasma TVs got cheaper, too, as we predicted. Average prices have plummeted from $5,300 a couple of years ago to about $2,500 last month, according to the NPD Consumer Electronics Price Watch, which monitors pricing of hot tech products.
10: But we have to admit our predictions of TiVo's demise were a bit premature. TiVo is clearly losing money - about $26.4 million in its most recent quarter - amid growing competition from cable companies that offer similar services. But TiVo also doubled the number of subscribers in the last year, with more than 2.3 million subscribers.