KERRYSUN, 3x

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., shakes hands at a town hall meeting at Northhampton County Community College in Bethlehem on March 14. Kerry made Pennsylvania one of his first stops after he passed the threshold necessary to clinch the nomination on March 13. He plans at least two fund-raising visits to the state in April. His wife, Teresa, is the widow of Pittsburgh native and Republican U.S. Sen. John Heinz. She is an heir to the city's H.J. Heinz food company fortune.

Quote:yes

PLYMOUTH MEETING, Pa. - Albert Herb and Bill Wilson, both 70-something, retired school principals and registered Republicans, aren't crazy about Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president.But neither are they excited about the prospect of a second term for President Bush.Wilson, in fact, has already ruled out the GOP incumbent. He said his choice in the November election will be between voting for Kerry or not voting for president at all."One or the other," Wilson said firmly as he and Herb sipped coffee in the food court at Plymouth Meeting Mall here in the Philadelphia suburbs - a crucial battleground within one of a small number of states that are considered up for grabs this year.Like his friend, Herb disapproves of the way Bush has handled the war in Iraq. But he is not yet certain whether the president or Kerry will get his support in seven months."I might decide that in the (voting) booth," he said.Like the Pennsylvania voters they're trying to woo, the presidential campaigns are focused on the general election. The state's April 27 presidential primary will have no practical effect: Bush is unopposed for the Republican nomination, and Kerry has racked up more than enough delegates in states with earlier primaries and caucuses to win the Democratic nod when the party holds its convention in Boston in July.The stakes are high - Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes represent the fifth-largest electoral prize - and the barrage of TV advertising that began in early March is certain to intensify in the months ahead."If you're in Pennsylvania, you're going to see absolutely every ad produced in the election, not just by the candidates, but by all the independent groups," predicted Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia.Bush has visited the state 26 times since he took office in 2001. Kerry, whose wife is from Pittsburgh, made Pennsylvania one of his first stops after he passed the threshold necessary to clinch the nomination on March 13. He plans at least two fund-raising visits to the state in April.Adding to the statewide interest is speculation in some corners that Gov. Ed Rendell, a former general chairman of the Democratic National Committee and a prodigious fund-raiser, might be tapped as Kerry's running mate. Rendell has said he is not seeking the job, but that he would consider an offer if one were extended, according to Penny Lee, his director of communications.Statewide polling suggests that the Pennsylvania race will be tight.A Quinnipiac University poll, completed two days after Kerry became the presumptive nominee, showed him with 45 percent and Bush with 44 percent in a two-way race. The same poll showed independent Ralph Nader cutting into Kerry's support in a three-way race and reshuffling the results to 44 percent for Bush, 40 percent for Kerry and 7 percent for Nader. As a nonparty candidate, Nader has until Aug. 2 to gather the 25,697 signatures he needs to get his name placed on the state's ballot.Officials in both campaigns and outside analysts agree it will be next to impossible for Kerry to win the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania, and slightly less difficult for Bush."Kerry cannot get elected without winning Pennsylvania," Sabato said. "Bush can, as he proved in 2000, but only by the skin of his teeth."

Democratic nominee Al Gore carried Pennsylvania in 2000, beating Bush by fewer than 205,000 votes - four percentage points - out of 4.9 million cast. Bush did not go over the top until after a 36-day ballot recount in Florida that ultimately was halted by the Supreme Court."It's a heck of a lot easier if you do win Pennsylvania," said Leslie Gromis Baker, the regional chairwoman of the president's re-election campaign.Democrats outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania, 3.6 million to 3.2 million. The last Republican to carry the state was the president's father, George Bush, in 1988.This year, independent polls show the state's voters are concerned about the economy and, to a lesser extent, health care, education and the U.S. occupation in Iraq.Gromis Baker said the Bush campaign has recruited about 15,000 "team leaders" across the state - volunteers who promise to recruit other volunteers - as part of an emphasis on local organizing and signing up new voters. A dozen training sessions have been held to give the volunteers a historical perspective on the presidential electorate and an understanding of what is expected of them.Whether the task is recruiting voters or writing letters to newspapers, "we tell them very clearly, `If you say you're going to do this, we need you to do it,'"GromisBaker said.At the beginning of April, the Kerry campaign had yet to set up shop in Pennsylvania. But preparations were under way and Democratic State Chairman T.J. Rooney said party activists were eager to become involved."It's just been incredible - the sheer volume of people," Rooney said.At the eye of this gathering political storm are the four suburban Philadelphia counties, where the GOP dominates voter registration but is struggling to retain socially progressive members who have helped advance the Democratic agenda in recent years.In Montgomery County, which takes in Plymouth Meeting, Rendell won a majority of the vote when he was elected in 2002. Gore carried the county in 2000.At the mall, other shoppers who were interviewed at random recently were quicker than the two retired principals to take sides in the presidential race.Ed Lenhart, 49, a Republican from Conshohocken, said he has confidence in Bush's handling of foreign policy.Kerry "is more prone to run to the (United Nations) for approval on things," he said.Jon Lalla, 44, a computer programmer from Downingtown who worries about his job being shifted overseas, said he'll vote for Kerry even though he would have preferred another Democratic nominee."I'm more anti-Bush at this point," he said.Even though Kerry has unofficially clinched the nomination, four other Democratic candidates and former candidates also will be listed on the primary ballot: former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean; U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio; Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina; and perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche.