'Me and You and a Dog Named Boo'
Let me illustrate movements in the stock market.
We’ll use an example of what could happen if you took your dog, Boo, for a very long walk from the southwestern corner of Butler County to the most northeastern part of the county.
As the dog-owner in this story, you represent the stock market. Boo represents the changing value of the stock market.
Now, imagine Boo is on a long leash in Cranberry Township darting around in random directions. He drags you north into Jackson Township and Connoquenessing (symbolizing a rise in the stock market), but then walks east into Butler Township (symbolizing a flat market).
Maybe at this point he begins to tire as he walks south to Penn Township, which is like the stock market dropping in value as the trend line heads downward. If Boo walks further south into Middlesex Township, this could be compared to a market correction or even a full recession depending on how far south he goes.
After a little while, Boo regains his energy (indicating early market recovery) and he drags you north through Jefferson, Summit, Oakland … maybe all the way up into North Washington (market expansion).
This symbolizes the market growth you would see during a rising economic recovery, until you the reach the market top (more commonly known as full recovery). This could occur by the time Boo reaches Venango Township.
That’s a lot of ground for Boo to cover, right? In fact it could take a very long time — maybe even a year or two. But in dog years, that’s really more like seven to 14 years. Well, there you have a full market cycle — from the bottom (a recession) all the way to full recovery (the market top), more likely taking place over the longer term of seven or more years.
Here’s the catch: The entire time you’re walking your dog, bystanders have their eye on the random directions that Boo is taking, not on you the owner. You knew in the long run you wanted to get to the northeastern part of Butler County, but it’s what happens along the way that has caught the interest of those around you.
So Boo is subjecting folks to the daily distractors that influence the near-term market changes, thereby causing investors to make emotional or irrational decisions. But you as the owner are focused on the longer-term, end goal so you avoid those emotional reactions to random movements.
Time is your friend as an investor. Know your goals, decide when time is no longer on your side, then realize if it’s time to move your investments out of the market, fully or partially. As for you and Boo — don’t miss the forest through the trees.
Wendy Bennett is a senior financial adviser in Butler.
