It's amazing how quickly perception can change in the NFL.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts are the premier teams that look to be serious threats not only to reach the Super Bowl, but to win it.

New England (10-0 before Sunday's game) needed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter three weeks ago to edge Indianapolis (9-2) when both teams were unbeaten.

After Pittsburgh's 31-28 come-from-behind win over the Cleveland Browns two weeks ago, the Steelers improved to 7-2 and actually held the No. 2 seed over the Colts, who lost to the San Diego Chargers that same week.

People began talking about the Steelers as a sleeper team, a third threat and possible dark horse candidate to make it to the Super Bowl, especially with their stout defense.

Then overconfidence stepped in.

Pittsburgh had two potential victories against the New York Jets (1-8 at the time) and the winless Miami Dolphins.

The idea was Pittsburgh could pick up two easy wins, then defeat Cincinnati at home (something not easy for the Steelers despite its winning ways at Cincy).

They would enter the Dec. 9 game at New England with a 10-2 record.

But the 19-16 loss to the Jets last Sunday still concerns me. It marked the Steelers' third road loss of the season, something that has to trouble head coach Mike Tomlin.

Winning on the road in the NFL is never a given, but against weaker opponents, that's where a good team must strike.

Unless the Steelers can secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, which now appears unlikely, they'll have to venture on the road against a really good team.

I convinced myself earlier that close losses on the road at Arizona and Denver still put the Steelers in a position to win late in the game. The same could be said for the Jets, but the Jets were on the ropes all season.

The Jets and Denver were playing Pittsburgh after a much-needed bye and had time to adjust and prepare.

The Steelers have kept the losses close, but will they have the firepower to overcome a big deficit against a good team like New England or Indianapolis?

Not likely.

I always believe that anyone can beat anyone in the NFL (paid professional athletes ... good players on every team, etc.), but the Jets game was another in which the Steelers played a team vulnerable against the run (Denver was the other) but could not pound the ball and eat the clock.

Obviously, a better special teams unit would be nice, but the Steelers will need to have a strong running game if they are to make a serious post-season run.

There are other good AFC teams like Jacksonville and San Diego ready to make a second-half push if the Steelers falter.

Overconfidence should not be one of the reasons why.