WASHINGTON — Sharply higher prices for everyday goods in June reflected a surge at the gas pump, not the start of a dangerous bout of inflation. In fact, economists say falling prices are the bigger danger.

A Labor Department report Wednesday showed consumer prices making their biggest jump last month in almost a year. But overall prices are down 1.4 percent from this time last year — the biggest decline in almost six decades.

That's bad news for business executives. High unemployment and stagnant wages mean they risk losing customers if they raise their prices.

Consumer prices were up 0.7 percent in June, the Labor Department said, mostly because of higher energy prices. Gasoline was 17 percent more expensive in June than in May.

Food prices were up only slightly, and dairy products were cheaper. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, posted a moderate 0.2 percent rise in June, well within the Federal Reserve's comfort zone.

The Fed forecast Wednesday unemployment would top 10 percent this year and said it expects inflation will "remain subdued for some time."

Economists say there are two threats that could scuttle their forecast of benign inflation — oil and the dollar. If Middle East tensions suddenly sent oil prices surging, or if the dollar started falling precipitously, all bets would be off.

Oil prices appear to be in check. They rose in June but have fallen since, and gas prices are down to a national average of about $2.50 this week, 17 cents lower than a month ago.

But if foreign investors worried about soaring U.S. deficits start selling their Treasury securities, that could send the dollar down. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was in the Middle East this week to reassure investors in U.S. debt that the administration is serious about tackling the deficit once the economy comes back.