NEW YORK — A private research group said today its forecast of economic activity rose for a fourth straight month in July, but at a slower pace than in the past three months.

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators gained 0.6 percent last month, slightly less than economists expected. The index, which is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months, climbed 0.8 percent in June and 1.2 percent in May.

Still, the Conference Board said today the indicators suggest the recession has bottomed out and growth in economic activity will begin soon.

The six-month growth rate rose to 3 percent through July, up from 2.1 percent through June. That's the highest growth rate since mid-2004, the Conference Board said.

Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the index increased in July, including employment data and stock prices.