BRADENTON, Fla. — Every time the Pittsburgh Pirates believe they're developing a staff ace, a setback seems to follow. In the Pirates' case, a lot of setbacks.

Right-hander Ian Snell won 14 games in 2006, yet has won only 16 games since. Left-hander Tom Gorzelanny won 14 games in 2007, yet is now back in minor league camp as he tries to correct issues with his delivery.

Same old Pirates — can't win for losing.

Only this time they believe Paul Maholm is for real.

A left-hander with a fall-off-the table sinker and the confidence he can shut down any situation, Maholm led the Pirates with a scant nine victories last season. It was the first time in 118 seasons their staff leader had fewer than 10 wins.

The way Maholm went about going 9-9 with a 3.71 ERA is what has the Pirates convinced that Maholm is a star in the making. To back up that belief, they gave him a $14.5 million, three-year contract last month to avoid salary arbitration.

That's a lot of money, by the Pirates' standards, for a pitcher whose win totals in his first three full seasons were 8, 10 and 9.

By 2012, the Pirates believe the contract will look like a bargain.

Pitching coach Joe Kerrigan worked with some of the majors' best staffs while employed by the Red Sox and Yankees and he knows what a good starting pitcher looks like. To Kerrigan, the 26-year-old Maholm is just such a pitcher.

"If you've seen him throwing on the side, see his understanding of the game, the understanding of his craft — pitching — you can tell he has a great idea," Kerrigan said. "He's a coach's dream. The effort he puts into the side sessions, his bullpen sessions, is translated into the game."

Maholm, who will pitch in a minor league game today, has been so efficient this spring that he keeps running out of innings before his pitch count gets to where the Pirates want it. The 2003 first-round draft pick is 2-0 with an 0.46 ERA, 12 strikeouts, one walk and one earned run allowed in 19X\c exhibition innings.

Maholm has pitched so effortlessly and effectively, he is almost rooting for a bad start before spring training ends next week.

"The bad outing will come, so I'd like to get it out of the way," Maholm said. "I want it to happen here instead of during the season."

Maholm so baffled the Reds by mixing in curveballs and changeups with his sinker while limiting them to three hits during six shutout innings on Saturday, one-time Pirates infielder John Wehner said it reminded him of former teammate Zane Smith.

Smith, picked up from the Braves in a late-season 1990 trade, went 30-20 from 1990-92 for the last three Pirates teams to win division titles, and to have winning records. Maholm's approach and repertoire are reminiscent of Smith's never-get-rattled makeup and a sinker that occasionally seemed unhittable.

Maholm was more consistent than his record would indicate last season, lasting at least six innings in 20 consecutive starts, but pitchers on teams that lose 95 games soon learn that excellent starts don't always produce wins.

Immediately after the All-Star break, for example, the former Mississippi State pitcher gave up one run in seven innings against San Diego and no runs in seven innings against the Phillies, yet didn't win either game.

"He stays away from deep counts and gets a lot of early contact, first-pitch and second-pitch contact," Kerrigan said. "He's not afraid of contact, which is a big thing for young pitchers. A lot of pitchers come into the big leagues and they're afraid of contact. He's the exact opposite — he wants contact because he knows his stuff is good enough, it's going to result in ground balls."