Tiger Woods recently made it clear that he won't be hanging around the PGA Tour long after his work ethic can't gain him victories.

I have this running argument with my friend Dave. It goes like this: Dave thinks Tiger Woods will be playing on the PGA Tour and contending in majors into his 50s. I think Tiger will be done with golf around age 40.

Sorry to break it to you, Dave, but it looks like Tiger's going to prove me right.

Tiger told Reuters last week that he already has his exit strategy planned.

"I could not live with myself going out and practicing and preparing as hard as I do now and knowing that if I go out and play my best, someone is just going to beat me," he told the news agency. "But that happens. Your skills diminish; guys get better; they're more athletic. You have your time in the sun. There's nothing wrong with walking away from it."

It seems a little crazy to be discussing a 401(k) and retirement plans for Tiger when he's only 32, at the peak of his powers and racing through the history books faster than a 12-year-old goes through a Harry Potter novel.

Yet the discussion is valid precisely because it is a reminder that Tiger's dominance—and that of any exceptional athlete's — is rare and fleeting. We should cherish Tiger's era because we never know how long it will last.

Exactly how long it will last is anyone's guess, but I think it'll be right around the time he turns 40. Dave argues that Tiger's physical conditioning will allow him to play at a very high level well into his 50s.

But the reason Tiger won't play much, if at all, after 40 is not because he won't be able to but because he won't want to for several reasons.

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Reason No. 1: No records left to break. Tiger has won 13 majors. With his average of winning a little more than one major each year, he will surpass Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 majors by 2013, when Tiger is 38. Throwing out his 2003-04 slump, Tiger is averaging seven PGA Tour wins the past three years. At that rate, Tiger, who began 2008 with 61 wins and now has 64, will pass Sam Snead's record of 82 wins in 2011.•

Reason No. 2: Money. As in Tiger's great, great, great-grandchildren won't need it. Golf Digest estimates that Tiger will become the first billionaire athlete by 2010.•

Reason No. 3: Outside interests. By 40, Tiger will have school plays he'd like to attend rather than six-mile runs and putting practice at 6 a.m. He'll also be engrossed in designing courses, which has been a childhood ambition.•

Reason No. 4: Pride. Tiger is the equivalent of a power-punching heavyweight boxer. What he has lost in a devastating right cross he has made up for with guile. But he knows there will come a time when he starts getting knocked to the canvas a little too often. After he starts missing tour cuts with increasing regularity, Tiger will pare his schedule to focus on majors. Once he starts missing cuts in majors, then you'd better get ready for your last glimpse, because Tiger isn't going to have the stomach for missing the cut in three straight majors at age 43 in pursuit of his 22nd major."Some try to prolong it, that early exit," Tiger told Reuters. "One of the great things about our sport is you can play as long as you want. But do you want to play in mediocrity? That's the thing that I would have a hard time with. I can't go out there knowing if I play my best, I'm not going to win."There's a lot to be said for the majority of athletes who compete without the surety of success. While it seems a bit fragile of Tiger to admit he won't play if he can't win, it's understandable. It's what he and everyone else have come to expect of his performance. The standards for Tiger are so high that the eventual fall he will experience would crush anyone. Tiger not only deserves an exit full of grace and gratitude for one of the greatest careers in sports, but he also deserves the right to recognize when it's over.