CRANBERRY TWP — Daniel Smith Jr. knows he faces a tough challenge this fall.

The first-time candidate will challenge incumbent Rep. Daryl Metcalfe for the state 12th Legislative District seat, one Metcalfe, a Republican, has held for nearly two decades. Over that period, Metcalfe has faced few legitimate challenges.

Smith, a Democrat, believes he possesses the elements needed to defeat Metcalfe: passion for the work, a strategic plan to speak with every potential voter in the district and the benefit of history on his side. This, he said, separates him from those who have challenged Metcalfe in the past.

“Not to say past competitors did a bad job — they did not,” Smith said. “But we’ve been able to speak with them and pinpoint items they didn’t accomplish and focus on that, and that’s exactly what I’ve been implementing.”

History

According to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State and the Butler County Bureau of Elections, Metcalfe has faced seven general election challenges, including his first victory in 1998. In that race, he defeated Tim Tuinstra by more than 5,400 votes to replace retiring Democrat Patricia Carone, who held the seat for eight years.

In 2000, Metcalfe faced independent candidate Louis Hancherick, winning by nearly 22,000 votes — his largest such victory during his candidacy.

Metcalfe faced challenges from Democrats Linda Schoettker in 2002; John Olsenevich in 2008; Zack Byrnes in 2010; Lisa Zucco in 2014; and Christian Rieger in 2016. Of those races, Zucco posed the closest challenge, losing by 4,727 votes.

All told, Metcalfe has defeated his general election opponents by an average of 10,955 votes.

According to the most recent available data from the Butler County Bureau of Elections, there are 27,094 registered Republicans in District 12, which includes Adams, Clinton, Cranberry, Forward, Middlesex and Penn townships, Callery, Mars, Seven Fields and Valencia boroughs. There are 13,504 registered Democrats and 6,774 unaffiliated or independent voters, making for a total gap of 6,816 voters.

Meanwhile, Smith earned the right to face Metcalfe after defeating Honora Rockar for the Democratic nomination in the May primary. Smith defeated Rockar 1,494 to 920, earning 62 percent of the vote. Rockar won seven of the 22 precincts in the district, all of which were in Cranberry Township.

Changing tides

Smith and his political adviser Mitch Kates believe those numbers and that history can be misleading.

“This is not a partisan election where a Democrat is fighting against a Republican,” Kates said. “This election is very much a non-partisan event.”

He said while historically Metcalfe’s seat may have been considered safe, Metcalfe’s partisan practices have frustrated voters. He pointed to a recent comment by Metcalfe in which he said he would not consider or advance any legislation from Democrats through the House State Government Committee, which he chairs.

Kates, who had a lengthy political background as a campaign adviser and served as the political director for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said he’s seen races similar to this in the past.

“For me personally, I’ve been involved in races like this that were considered long shots, and we found a way to win,” he said. “We knew what the voters wanted to talk about, we talked about those issues and we gave people a reason to vote ... against an incumbent.”

He said the makeup of the district is growing and changing, and the electorate appears to be frustrated.

Smith said he has seen and heard the frustration of voters first-hand while going door-to-door in the district over the past several months. He said he has spoken with residents of all affiliations, and the most common feedback he has received is that voters are tired of party politics. He said having lived in the district his entire life, he’s noticed the change in tone in recent years.

“As simply as I can put it, I can honestly tell you this political atmosphere is totally different from past election cycles,” he said.

Path to victory

According to Meri Long, a political-science professor at the University of Pittsburgh, there are a number of ways a challenger to an incumbent can find success. She said scandal that would disqualify an incumbent or hold them up to increased scrutiny tends to give a challenger an advantage.

Additionally, she said national trends can have a trickle-down effect.

“If the national mood is strongly in one direction ... people are turning out more heavily for one side for the top of the ticket and this has effects down ballot,” she said.

A challenger may also experience a boost if they are well known in the district before the election and carry name recognition. Smith has seemingly embraced this possibility, using an all-hands-on-deck canvass style with his team.

The boots-on-the-ground approach to campaigning is not a new concept, though Smith said his team has changed the way in which they’re doing it.

“We’re not just knocking on the same old, usual suspect households,” Kates said.

The field program began before the primary election, with a team of volunteers targeting a specific audience of voters. After winning the primary, Kates said the focus shifted, with the team going to locations they feel have been forgotten, including rural areas of the district.

“We’re spending a lot of time talking to voters who haven’t had people knock on their door before,” Kates said. “(Smith) is out there knocking on doors, but he’s not doing it alone.”

Smith said he believes Metcalfe has alienated a number of demographics, including younger voters, and the campaign will focus on swaying those registered as Republicans or unaffiliated to cast their vote for Smith.

“We know what our vote-get goal is,” Kates said, though he did not elaborate.

The pitch, Smith said, is simple: to keep the race about local issues. He said he was motivated to run after seeing and hearing about the lack of representation by Metcalfe in Harrisburg. This includes not having a work relationship with township and other government leaders. This includes not helping to secure funding for projects like Route 228 and Freedom Road improvements, and not advocating for bringing the money generated and earned in the district back to its residents.

“This is not an ideological race,” Kates said. “This is a race about quality of life of residents in District 12 and what they haven’t been getting in far too long.”

Smith said if elected, he plans to spend the majority of his week meeting with constituents and public officials in the district and taking their concerns back to Harrisburg at the beginning of the workweek.

That message seems to be resonating, as Smith said what began with a team of three people around a kitchen table has grown into a team of dozens of volunteers, as well as a few paid staffers who are canvassing the area. Kates said those volunteers stretch as far as Philadelphia, and include many people who previously voted and volunteered for Republican candidates.

Smith himself has taken his plan to local officials and to Harrisburg, where he met with the Pennsylvania House Democratic Caucus. He was invited to speak by Rep. Brian Simms, D-182nd, who has had heated exchanges with Metcalfe in the past.

Fundraising

Smith and Kates also pointed to increased fundraising as a sign the message is spreading.

As an incumbent, Metcalfe enjoys a sizable fundraising advantage. According to Campaign Finance Reports covering the period of May 1 to June 4, the Friends for Daryl Metcalfe group carried over $125,879.78 from the previous period. He raised $2,235, and spent $967.45, leaving him with $127,237.33.

His contributions came from ChamberPAC, Energy Voices PAC, First Energy Political Action Committee, NFG PAPC and the Pennsylvania Association of Deer Farmers PAC. The largest expense was $500 toward the Rick for Congress group, which records indicate is associated with Rick Saccone, R-38th, who this year sought a seat in the U.S. Senate.

Meanwhile, the Friends of Daniel Smith Jr. group raised $18,115 during the period, and spent $11,605. When combined with a $8,195.89 carryover from the previous reporting period, the Smith campaign ended the most recent period with $14,705.34 on hand.

However, Smith said his fundraising filings are starting to show contributions from other politicians and candidates from across the state, as well as from local and state residents who believe in his message.

“There are people that are seeking us out,” he said.

Itemized reports indicate the Smith campaign received a $250 contribution from the Friends of Rep. Mary Jo Daley, D-148th. Other donors include a $2,000 contribution from the Carpenters Legislative Program of Greater Pennsylvania, and a $10,000 donation from Mel Heifetz of Philadelphia.

The largest expenses came via a $5,868 payment for direct mailing, and $4,500 for consulting services.

Kates said with more than 230 legislative races around the state, state-level support can be hard to come by. However, he said the House Caucus and staff have been helpful in providing resources and infrastructure to allow the Smith campaign to be run “smart and efficiently.”

“We are using whatever resources in whatever way possible,” he said.

Smith said he will continue to work as hard as he can until November to hear what people of the district have to say, and will hopefully convince them to cast their vote for him.

“I’m running as an aggravated constituent,” he said. “The people of the area ... are wanting to be heard.”