WASHINGTON — The economy is growing modestly, with consumers too wary about spending to invigorate the recovery.

That's the picture that emerged from reports today on the economy and the confidence of consumers, who power 70 percent of it.

Unemployment and tight credit have sapped shoppers' willingness and ability to spend freely as retailers enter their crucial holiday season. And Americans are expected to grow more cautious about spending next year. That would make for a plodding recovery.

The economy grew at a 2.8 percent rate last quarter. Forecasts for the current quarter are for similarly lackluster growth before a drop-off next year.

"It's hardly a rip-roaring recovery," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services. "Usually coming out of a recession you get growth more like a rodeo bull — at a pace of 6 or 7 percent in the early quarters of recovery. That isn't happening. It is coming out of the stalls more like a fat cow."

The Federal Reserve doesn't expect the rebound to be strong enough to quickly drive down the jobless rate, now at 10.2 percent, according to documents of its meeting earlier this month. The Fed foresees a gradual recovery, with an elevated unemployment rate over the next several years.