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Early year market trends

This month I thought we would take a serious look at what is really happening so far this year.

I hesitate to do that until we get a little deeper into a year, but here we are in May, so that is deep enough.

These are just things that I see and may not hold through the end of the year but appear to be trends right now anyway. I’m writing this on Tuesday so things can change.

The stock market seems to have stepped away from the favorites from the past year or so. Many of those stocks that have been performing well — financial jargon for going up — have cooled off. No big surprise there.

As we all know, nothing goes straight up.

Utilities have been strong. Historically, you do not see that if interest rates are going up.

Some energy stocks, with a slant toward natural gas, have been strong.

The midsized companies, Mid-Caps, and the small companies, Small Cap, have been weak or at least not making much progress. Again, nothing new here.

Most of those indexes have done well over the past couple of years. It may be time for a rest.

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Looking at the foreign markets, the Pacific Rim stocks, Japan and Shanghai, in particular have not done well. I see some of those countries down in excess of 10 percent.

If you look at a broad list of those countries, they are down 2 or 3 percent on average.

Europe is up a couple of percent. Those Italians are blowing ahead up about 15 percent.

Overall, the world markets are really not in bad shape with the Global Dow except the U.S. is about break even.

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Domestically we are just meandering.

The broad market as measured by the Wilshire 5000 index of most stocks traded is up around 1 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average is a little below break even, The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up about 1 percent and the Nasdaq Composite is down a couple of percent.

All in all, this is bordering on the boring. I hate to say that because then something will happen to make it not so boring.

We do have issues with Russia that has and could affect all markets.

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Gold is up about 8 percent for the year, natural gas is up about 13 percent and crude oil is up more than 2 percent.

The commodities market is heating up as you can see. The DJ-UBS Commodity index is up almost 10 percent.

That is not necessarily good for you and me. It means that higher prices may be coming.

Knowing full well that these things can change, corn has picked up and is trending higher, the same with soybeans and cattle. Hogs blasted upward, fell back, and now look higher.

In my view, higher prices for commodities, particularly food related, just have to go higher. The demand for food around the world is growing, not decreasing.

Energy prices are interesting. Supposedly, we, at this juncture, have plenty of energy.

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Natural gas is zooming up in anticipation, I think, of demand for our Marcellus gas to turn into propane. The demand for propane around the world is huge, and I just don’t see that going away. As soon as we can convert it, there will be a market.

I also have noticed some of the shipping companies out there are ordering those huge tankers that transport propane. I think you are going to see it happen in the next couple of years.

One huge oil company I follow, which has been known as an oil company, now has 50 percent of its assets in natural gas.

These people are not stupid. They normally can see trends developing.

I’ve been saying for months that natural gas prices are headed mu ch higher, and I have no reason to change my mind. However, remember that my wife tells me I don’t know any more than anyone else.

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One of the things you do not like to see is signs of a top. Well, I am seeing new investors, ones who have missed the market, deciding that now is the time.

That bothers me. If you are one of them, be careful.

———

The wife came strolling into the man cave the other day. I was waiting on her.

She said, “What do you call 13 men watching the NBA finals on TV.”

I just hate it when she does that.

I said “I’ll bite, what do you call 13 men watching the NBA finals on TV?”

She said “The Los Angeles Lakers” and went roaring out of the room.

That was fairly funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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