BC3, SRU prepare for coming ‘Enrollment cliff’
A decline in the national birth rate that started around 2008 has higher education institutions expecting an “enrollment cliff” in the coming school year, which combined with other social and economic factors may cause fewer students to go to college.
Josh Novak, Butler County Community College’s vice president for student affairs and enrollment management, described Western Pennsylvania as being on the “bleeding edge” of that cliff.
“We have been seeing population decline, so we've seen some effects of that demographic cliff that you may not be seeing in other parts of the country,” Novak said of Butler County, and Western Pennsylvania in general. “The reality is, there are less students coming out of high school, a long trend coming out of high school for some time and we are continually trying to figure out how to address it.”
Some public schools in the county have already seen the effects of population decline, but Novak pointed out school districts, such as Seneca Valley and Mars Area, buck the trend, with the number of students graduating still increasing each year. According to data collected by BC3, school districts such as Karns City Area, Slippery Rock Area, Knoch and even Butler Area have seen fewer students graduate each year since 2015.
This leaves an overall smaller pool of prospective students for higher education institutions. As a result, Butler County’s two colleges, BC3 and Slippery Rock University, have been looking at ways to keep population decline from derailing their programs.
But with BC3 being a community college and Slippery Rock part of the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education, the challenges of the two in-county colleges differ from those of institutions outside those categories.
Michael May, vice president for enrollment management at Slippery Rock, said being connected to PASSHE means the university has access to information and strategies that may not be shared by independent schools. The state system not only tracks demographics around Pennsylvania, but also what jobs and careers are in demand statewide, which allows Slippery Rock to steer resources and graduates toward related programs.
“There is a lot of work behind the scenes to make sure new academic programs fill a need,” May said. “It gives us a sense of what careers are in the most demand so we can align as a system.”
BC3, meanwhile, is not always looking to attract the same kind of students Slippery Rock or other traditional four-year colleges do. The college is built around community programming almost as much as it is built around educational degrees and offers youth daycare, camps and event space in addition to traditional college classes.
Novak said the focus for marketing and recruitment is much more regional compared to a noncommunity college.
“We do not recruit in New York, Ohio, Virginia. We don't do that,” he said. “What Butler, Lawrence, Brockway, what's happening in those schools and communities, it impacts us.”
But adaptation is still the name of the game for both colleges. Novak said the enrollment cliff has been regularly discussed by administrators and department heads at BC3, which leads to talk about how to attract and keep people who will be graduating high school soon.
Novak said the community college plans years ahead of time, but adapts where it can on the fly. In the long-term, the college has been increasing its online programs, as well as its appeal to students who earned college credits but never finished their degree.
“We certainly are trying to make sure returning adults are aware that we are a great resource,” Novak said. “We have absolutely seen growth in our fully online programs.”
Slippery Rock, likewise, promotes what makes it unique as a way of managing enrollment. May said SRU’s new four-year, on-the-ground nursing program was approved by a state agency in February — near record time for that kind of approval. Healthcare programs have become a booster for SRU and it is responding by building up its degree offerings, May said.
“It's in-demand and a very needed skill set that we'll begin producing more nurses,” May said. “We have healthcare administration and management, which is popular and relevant to where we're at.”
Ken Bach, senior director of university marketing and communication at Slippery Rock University, said his department works with May’s to promote programming to prospective students.
“The reason we want to make sure we're authentically connecting because that extra lift is going to hopefully maintain your enrollment,” Bach said.
Despite the detrimental sound of an enrollment cliff, Novak and May said the incoming class is looking promising numbers-wise. May also said preliminary data has him optimistic for the following year’s.
“If enrollment stays steady, that's like growing, because there are fewer students out there,” May said.
“All of the preliminary reports that I'm giving right now have me cautiously optimistic about an enrollment increase year over year,” May added. “We're off to a good start for the ’26-27 year understanding that the demographics are a lot less favorable.”
According to Novak, BC3 has one of its largest incoming nursing classes ever starting in the fall semester and the college’s online programs continue to grow. Despite the smaller amount of students available, Novak said the college is doing what it can to appeal to the ones who are college-bound.
“I've been in this role for two years and over the last year we set an institutional goal that enrollment is everybody's business,” Novak said. “I think BC3 is proactively looking at enrollment and looking at the needs of the community. We're up to the challenge.”
