HARRISBURG - Whenever a near-record black bear harvest occurs, as in 2003, hunters typically expect the next year's harvest to drop off.

But Pennsylvania Game Commission field officers and biologists don't believe the state will head in that direction when the statewide three-day bear season opens Nov. 22, so long as inclement weather doesn't keep hunters out of the woods.

"The last few years have been phenomenal for black bear hunting," said Vern Ross, Game Commission executive director. "The first time hunters took 3,000-plus bears in the state, they followed the season with another 3,000-plus harvest.

"Of course, there's no way of guaranteeing they'll do the same in 2004, but there surely is no shortage of bears in the Commonwealth," he added.

Pennsylvania recorded its first 3,000-plus harvest in 2000, when hunters took 3,075 bears. In 2001, the harvest dropped slightly to 3,063. Then in 2002, it slipped to 2,686. Last year, the harvest totaled 3,000 bears.

Pennsylvania's four largest black bear harvests have occurred over the last four years, which seems odd for a somewhat reclusive big woods species at a time when development, particularly in the Poconos, a historic black bear stronghold, continually claims more of Penn's Woods.

But it's not odd to Mark Ternent, Game Commission black bear biologist.

"Our record black bear harvests have been occurring because the bear population has been increasing, not because hunters are starting to take progressively more bears out of the population each year," Ternent said.

"Right now, the Game Commission believes the state's bear population is nearly 15,000 bears, which is close to where it was last year," he added.

Ternent is expecting a bear harvest of 2,500 to 3,000 this year, with the chance for slightly more if the weather is ideal for hunting.

In 2003, hunters took three bears - one eventually was determined to have been taken illegally - with estimated live weights exceeding 800 pounds. The largest was an 864-pound male taken in Dingman Township, Pike County, by Douglas Kristiansen of Milford.

"Bears weighing up to 800 pounds certainly exist in Pennsylvania, but they are quite uncommon," Ternent said. "On the other hand, few states produce big black bears as consistently as Pennsylvania."