Investing: In the long run
If you’re saving money for a down-payment on a house and plan to use that money in the next year or so, would you invest it in the market? Hopefully, you would not.
But if you’re saving money to be used throughout your retirement years, would you invest at least some of it in the market? Hopefully, you would.
We’ve all heard this rule about investing: It’s time in the market, not market timing, that helps build returns.
To support this, many studies have been undertaken to illustrate that the chance of investment gains increases dramatically with longer investment holding periods.
An interesting study I recently read used historical daily returns of the S&P 500 over an 86-year time frame to compare the outcomes of a 12-month holding period versus a 12-year holding period.
The 12-month holding period had positive returns 74 percent of the time with a median return of $13 on a $100 investment, while the 12-year holding period had positive returns 96 percent of the time with a median return of $240 on a $100 investment.
A comparable study I read analyzed investment outcomes of large-cap U.S. stock, small-cap U.S. stock, U.S. bonds and U.S. cash as well as a 60 percent/40 percent portfolio (consisting of 40 percent-large cap, 20 percent small-cap, 30 percent bonds and 10 percent cash) over a 92-year time frame.
The results were similar for each scenario: the longer the holding period, the higher the chances of attaining greater investment returns and the lower the chance of loss.
If the market is riskier for short-term investors than for long-term investors, it makes sense that you would conservatively invest the money you plan to access in the near-term (such as a down-payment on a home purchase), while money with a longer time-horizon (such as retirement spending) should take on greater market exposure to enhance the chances for investment growth.
So, why is it so difficult for investors to follow this philosophy? The answer is lack of patience.
Staying in the market for the long run is one of the greatest challenges many investors face. Your personal long run may be 12 years, or it may be 30-plus years. Establish an investment plan that addresses your investment timeline, tailor your asset exposure accordingly and stick to your investment strategy.
The Eagles wrote a song called “The Long Run.” The closing lyrics say, “Well, we’re scared, but we ain’t shakin’; Kinda bent, but we ain’t breakin’ — in the long run.”
Their song may have been about enduring love, but these words appropriately describe the patient investor.
Wendy Bennett is a senior financial adviser in Butler.
