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Federal bailout involves risk, but could benefit economy, taxpayers

Though he now has a $5 billion vested interest in seeing the U.S. financial markets recover, the words and actions of legendary investor Warren Buffett should boost public confidence that the financial crisis will be managed — and that taxpayers could even come out winners.

Assuming a deal is finalized by Congress to provide up to $700 billion for the Treasury Department to purchase distressed assets of banks and unfreeze the credit markets, there are some people who view the plan as something other than a bailout. It can be called a cash infusion or, more accurately, an investment.

While there still is substantial risk because of the many unknowns about some of the assets and the psychological aspect of the markets, there also is a reasonable chance that the program will work — and even produce a return on the taxpayers' massive investment.

Buffett said his $5 billion bet on the Goldman Sachs investment bank was a sign of his confidence in Goldman and his confidence in Congress putting together a reasonable and effective rescue plan.

Looking at the upside potential, Buffett said, "I think the Treasury will pay back the $700 billion and make a considerable amount of money." The billionaire investor added that if he had $700 billion to buy the targeted distressed assets, he would.

Whether or not the Treasury makes a profit when it later sells the distressed mortgage-based assets held by commercial banks and investment banks still largely depends on the prices paid by the government for those assets — and what they can be sold for later, when the markets normalize.

Buffett's investment, made through his Berkshire Hathaway company, is being described by others as a potentially lucrative deal, with very favorable terms for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders.

It's worth noting Buffett's confidence in the proposed plan by the Treasury Department, that taxpayers might actually be winners in the government intervention that's been labeled a bailout. And he is not alone.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Andy Kessler, a former hedge fund manager, suggests that the federal government should easily recoup its investment in the AIG insurance company. He also argues that the Treasury's "bailout" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could turn out to be a "gold mine," with the distressed assets turning out to be worth far more than what the government is paying, or backing with loan guarantees.

Finally, the $700 billion plan to clean up balance sheets on Wall Street could be a big moneymaker for taxpayers, according to Kessler. He argues that the subprime loans range from seriously distressed to not-so-bad, and this mix of assets, he suggests, could eventually be sold for $1 trillion or more.

At this point, it's still just speculation, but by some pretty experienced investors.

There appears to be broad agreement that something substantial needs to be done, and fairly quickly, to get credit markets moving normally again. The tweaking by Congress of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's outline of a plan should help ensure that the federal government minimizes the risks to taxpayers.

In several interviews this week, former President Bill Clinton also expressed faith in the Treasury plan, agreeing with Buffett and others in suggesting the financial rescue plan could actually make money for taxpayers. Clinton pointed out that the $50 billion bailout for Mexico, enacted in 1994 while he was president, saw the loans repaid ahead of schedule and with interest. He pointed out that that bailout made $500 million profit for American taxpayers.

The 1979 Chrysler bailout also was mentioned by Clinton as a prior government financial intervention that was repaid, with interest — netting the government a profit.

So, while nobody is minimizing the risks involved now, the $700 billion Treasury plan being hammered out in Congress this week could turn out to be a win-win for the United States.If successful, it will free up credit markets to work normally, and it could wind up making a profit for the taxpayers after the Treasury sells deeply discounted mortgage assets it bought from troubled banks.

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