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Trump’s polling average is narrowly ahead of Harris’ in Pa. for the first time, but it’s a dead heat

PHILADELPHIA — Former President Donald Trump’s polling average has pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker for the first time in Pennsylvania by an incredibly narrow margin.

The race has remained tight in Pennsylvania throughout the election cycle. But Harris had consistently — albeit marginally — led Trump in the state since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and she was presumed to be the Democratic nominee in July, according to the tracker.

FiveThirtyEight’s new polling average shows Trump leading Harris by less than half of one percentage point in Pennsylvania, so the race, which was already viewed as a statistical tie, could now be even more of a toss-up.

Pennsylvania is a critical battleground state that both candidates see as crucial to their path to victory. The state has more electoral votes than any other swing state, and each of the last two presidential elections were decided by roughly one percentage point in the state, going for Trump in 2016 and swinging to Biden in 2020.

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