SAINT-LARY-SOULAN, France - Lance Armstrong probably couldn't have scripted the first two weeks of the Tour de France much better.

No crashes, no dehydration, no real threat from his rivals so far. The Texan has even handled the occasional below-par showing from his teammates, and come away with a comfortable lead.

Now, it seems only an accident or an alarming drop in form can stop him from winning a seventh straight Tour.

"It's more secure, but it's not final. We have to be safe and know there's still tough days to come," Armstrong said after finishing a solid seventh in Sunday's 15th stage. "You never know, you go to a village and take a turn too fast and break your collarbone ... Tour de France over. So you have to be realistic. We have a week to go and a lot of things can get in the way."

He did not include his main rivals in the list of potential dangers.

Italian Ivan Basso is 2 minutes, 46 seconds behind in second, 1997 Tour winner Jan Ullrich trails by 5:58 and Alexandre Vinokourov by 9:38 heading into Monday's rest day in Pau.

Following on from Pau is one tough mountain in the Pyrenees, two other modest climbs, a flat stage and a time trial - his specialty. He dominated both last year.

If Armstrong can avoid mishap in what he says will be his last Tour de France, he will ride along the Champs-Elysees on July 24 as the only cyclist to win the event seven times.

Is Armstrong, at 34 years old, the best he's ever been?

"Yeah, maybe," he said. "Tough to say."

What became evident in the Alps and the Pyrenees this past week, is that he is still the strongest rider in the peloton.

Vinokourov and Ullrich have attacked Armstrong, even isolating him from his teammates at times and leaving him to fight alone.

But Armstrong has withstood the pressure while gradually increasing his lead.

"He is a level above other riders, maybe two levels," Australian cyclist Cadel Evans said. "When he's pushed he steps up. He's the best rider in the history of the Tour de France. If there was a way to beat him, we'd know it by now."

Johan Bruyneel, his Discovery Channel team director and key tactician on each Tour win, was asked if Armstrong had suffered at all on this Tour.

"Not really," Bruyneel said with a smile.

With Armstrong seemingly marching toward another title, a tense subplot is developing in the race for the podium places.

Ullrich, a five-time runner-up - three times to Armstrong - faces the possibility of another year off the podium. He is fourth, the same position he finished last year - the only time he did not place in the top three since finishing second in his debut in '96.

Basso, third last year, is currently in second place. Surprisingly, Danish rider Mickael Rasmussen is 3:09 behind Armstrong in third, and wearing the red-dotted jersey awarded at the end to the best climber.

Vinokourov, third in 2003, and Andreas Kloeden, last year's runner-up, are too far back to mount a challenge this late.

Armstrong was happy to concede defeat Sunday to close friend and teammate George Hincapie, who clinched his first individual stage win in a thrilling finish.

Hincapie became the eighth American to win an individual Tour stage. He and Armstrong hugged each other after the six-time champ rode in more than five minutes back in seventh place.

Hincapie's victory capped an emotional day for Armstrong. The race passed the spot where his former teammate, Fabio Casartelli, fell and died a decade ago.

"The feeling hasn't changed over the years," Armstrong said. "I still get a tear in my eye and still get goose bumps when I pass that incredibly beautiful monument."

Hincapie was part of a group of riders that broke away from the main pack early in the sun-baked 127.7-mile 15th stage from Lezat-sur-Leze to Saint-Lary-Soulan.

Hincapie and Oscar Pereiro, having shaken off the rest of the group, battled for victory alone on the final and hardest climb. The tall, genial New Yorker beat the Spaniard with a sprint finish.

"This is a dream for me," said Hincapie. "I'm really in a state of shock."

Armstrong called it a "perfect day."

"He is my biggest guy, my biggest friend on the team," he said of Hincapie.

The stage had a succession of five climbs before the final ascent up to the Pla d'Adet ski station above the Pyrenean town of Saint-Lary-Soulan.

AP-ES-07-18-05 0210EDT