A shopper looks around at a marketplace in Baghdad, Iraq, on Monday. Civilian deaths have dropped sharply since summer. Shoppers are venturing out, even in Baghdad's most dangerous neighborhoods.

BAGHDAD — Rocket and mortar attacks have fallen to their lowest level in nearly two years. Civilian deaths have dropped sharply since summer. Shoppers are venturing out, even in Baghdad's most dangerous neighborhoods.

Iraq's capital is by no means yet safe. But the trend toward better security is indisputable.

In short, the traumatized residents of this sprawling city are experiencing their first sense of normalcy after years of bombings, kidnappings and wholesale slaughter. Iraqi officials are speaking optimistically about reopening streets and gradually lifting the nighttime curfew to encourage public confidence.

"The sound of an explosion has become a rare and extraordinary thing. Before it was normal," said Mohammed Mghamish, a 41-year-old father of six in the Shiite stronghold of Sadr City. "I am not worried like before."

Many people in Baghdad still fear venturing beyond their own neighborhoods. Others fear the influence of hardline religious parties that have gained power.

"Things are getting better, but for women the situation is the same," said Hiba Hussein, 30, a Sunni woman lawyer in northern Baghdad. "I was forced to wear a head scarf because of the Islamic attitudes on the street. Women have lost their freedom."

All that typifies the emerging picture in Iraq — a country that is less violent than a year ago, but still very far from the democratic ideal the United States once sought.

Still, today's calm is a far cry — and vast improvement — from the terror that gripped this city of 6 million people a year ago.

Last December, 2,172 Iraqi civilians died violently, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press — most in Baghdad. But after a spike in June, violence in Baghdad began to ebb. In August, civilian deaths nationwide stood at 1,791, according to AP figures, and they fell to 878 in September and 750 in October.

As of Sunday, 189 civilians had died violently so far in November.

"I think it has turned a corner," Gen. Richard Cody, vice chief of staff of the Army, told the AP on Monday. "These things take time, though ... We have to have patience ... Certainly the enemy has patience. We have to have patience."

The reasons for the violence drop are less clear.

U.S. commanders cite the surge of nearly 30,000 troops sent by President Bush earlier this year.

"The surge gave us combat fire to reach out and touch the enemy," said Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, commander of U.S. troops along Baghdad's southern rim.

But the surge's success was also due to a revolt against al-Qaida by some Sunni Arabs — first in Anbar province and later in Baghdad. Fearing al-Qaida's brutal tactics, many fighters from rival insurgent groups began cooperating with U.S. forces to drive the extremists from their neighborhoods.

In addition, many Sunnis came to feel that Shiite religious parties posed a greater threat to their long-term Sunni interests than did U.S. forces.

U.S. commanders were quick to exploit the changes, organizing about 70,000 Sunni fighters into neighborhood watch groups and then working to integrate them into government forces.

"Now the (ex-insurgents) are providing the security," said Amir Mohammed, 47, a Sunni merchant in the western Baghdad neighborhood of Amariyah. "Shops are open until late at night. The living standard of the people in the area is lifted."