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Economy fuels midterm politics

Rivals spinning views of future

WASHINGTON — Midterm politics are distorting economic decision-making as leaders of both parties spin rival views of the road ahead, offering visions based on questionable economics.

The resulting political angst is leaving a mark on major legislation. A far-reaching financial overhaul bill signed by President Barack Obama on Wednesday reflects voter anger over bankers, bailouts and bonuses. A measure extending unemployment insurance — given final congressional passage on Thursday by the House and immediately signed by Obama — was scaled back from an earlier, far more ambitious Democratic stimulus plan.

Angling for advantage, Democrats look to troubles before Obama took office. "It's a choice between the policies that got us in this mess in the first place and the policies that are getting us out of this mess," asserts Obama.

Republicans seek an edge by looking ahead. "More government, fewer jobs: This isn't the picture of recovery; it's the epitome of failure," says House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio.

Both sides are exaggerating, say economists and political analysts. And things will only get messier as November's congressional elections draw closer. Politicians are under heavy pressure from polls that show increasing voter worry about alarmingly high unemployment, growing government debt and rising skepticism over Obama's ability to help the economy.

By contrast, 64 percent of economists surveyed in a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll said the economy would get better over the next 12 months — compared with just 33 percent among the general public who said they believed that.

"The election is certainly coloring the decision-making process in Washington, as one would expect," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

Zandi, who has advised both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, said the political gamesmanship comes as the economy remains "in a precarious situation" despite earlier signs of a rebound.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reinforced this view, telling Congress Wednesday the economy is "unusually uncertain." But he did not forecast it would fall back into recession.

Economists generally agree the Obama stimulus measures, plus bank and auto company bailouts begun under Bush, did keep the economy from plunging into another Great Depression and have recently contributed, at the least, to modest job growth.

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