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BOPEC to forgo oil production cut

Kuwaiti predicts price drop

VIENNA, Austria (AP) — OPEC all but abandoned the idea of cutting production at a meeting Wednesday, and Kuwait's oil minister predicted prices would fall below the $60 per barrel threshold in the second quarter.

Kuwait's oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah — who believes geopolitical tensions are adding $5 to $8 to each barrel — said he thinks prices will drop below $60 by the end of June, but are likely to rebound to the $60 range in the fourth quarter.

Oil ministers meeting behind closed doors at the headquarters of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries conceded that prices were uncomfortably high, and cautioned against lowering output at a time when extremists are attacking energy installations in Nigeria and the Middle East.

Many OPEC members repeatedly have said that prices are optimal in the $40-$50 range.

But they have hovered considerably higher for months. On Wednesday, light, sweet crude for April delivery was down 4 cents to $61.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. April Brent on the ICE Futures exchange gained 8 cents to $61.25 a barrel.

Al Sabah said the 11-nation cartel — which pumps a third of the world's oil — should maintain its current output quota of 28 million barrels a day, and he ruled out a production increase for the rest of the year.

That target does not include Iraq, which adds an additional 1.5 million barrels. Some members have voiced concern that there could be a glut of up to 2 million barrels a day in the second quarter, in part because of a milder than usual winter in the northern United States.

Venezuela's oil minister, Rafael Ramirez, said Wednesday he would postpone his push to get OPEC to cut production by at least half a million barrels a day. The South American country is one of the group's most strident voices in favor of constraining output to keep prices high.

Ramirez has maintained that the market is oversupplied by at least 500,000 barrels a day, and contends the surplus will widen to as much as 2 million barrels a day if demand falls in the second quarter as it typically does. But with no public support from other members, he said he would make his case again at the next OPEC meeting in June.

"The worries are there but ... we may have to wait for the next meeting," he said.

Mohammed al-Hamli, oil minister of the United Arab Emirates, insisted the cartel's output was "already adequate."

Oman's oil minister, Mohammed bin Hamed al-Rumhy, said concerns of oversupply did not justify a cut in output and expressed doubt that the group would support such a move. OPEC's acting secretary-general, Mohammed Barkindo of Nigeria, said he expected no surprises Wednesday.

Worries over Iran's nuclear ambitions, militant threats in Nigeria and attacks on Middle East facilities stoked concerns about supply disruptions as OPEC mapped out its pumping and pricing strategies for the spring and summer.

With consensus building against the idea of lowering production, OPEC planned to assess "the influence of new political issues on the oil market," said Qatar's oil minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah.

Recent attacks by militants on Nigerian pipelines and oil facilities have reduced the country's production by 455,000 barrels a day. Nigeria normally exports 2.5 million barrels daily.

"The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks," said Jason Schenker, an economist with Charlotte, N.C.-based Wachovia Corp. "That's a big deal. And then we just saw prices shoot up again over Iran."

Edmund Daukoru, OPEC's president and Nigeria's oil minister, said the African nation was "committed to providing adequate security for operators in the (Niger) Delta." He said Nigeria planned to pump an additional 600,000 barrels a day by June.

Iran's OPEC governor, Hussein Kazempour Ardebili, has sought to reassure the world that his country's escalating standoff with the West over its nuclear program would not affect its exports of crude. The International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board is meeting this week in an effort to ease the standoff with Tehran, which has vowed to begin large-scale uranium enrichment if the U.N. Security Council intervenes.

On the Net: OPEC, www.opec.org

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