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Imagine COVID-19 economy without tech

Economists concerned about slowing productivity have spent the past decade hotly debating the value of free digital services such as Google’s web search and Amazon’s online store. But those online services have proven their worth during the pandemic.

COVID-19 may ultimately push our society to learn new ways of using digital technologies that accelerate productivity growth.

Let’s do a scary little thought experiment. Try to imagine what 2020 would have been like without Google, Amazon, Zoom, Slack or any of the other online services. It’s pretty terrifying.

First, because Amazon wouldn’t exist (nor would any other online marketplace), everyone would have to buy everything in physical stores. Imagine the lines stretching around the block as impatient mask-wearing crowds stood 6 feet apart, waiting hours for the chance to buy some toilet paper or soap. Not only would this be an incredible inconvenience, it would increase the risk of infection.

People would also have to go in to their offices. With no Zoom, Slack or other remote management tools, the companies that have their employees working from home would have had to either halt operations — hurting the economy even more grievously — or find some way to bring them in. People congregating in offices would spread the disease, especially before everyone realized the importance of ventilation and the fact that 6 feet of distancing isn’t enough.

And without online communication tools that allow you to see the faces of friends and family and hear their voices, imagine how much lonelier people would have been during social distancing.

Finally, imagine looking for information about COVID without Google, Facebook and other disseminators of free online news. People would be glued to their television screens, waiting for updates from the government. It would have taken the public much longer to realize that masks actually helped reduce the spread of the virus.

So when you think about it, it’s pretty incredible that these online services were invented just in time for a once-in-a-century pandemic. Though some have pooh-poohed Silicon Valley’s usefulness in the era of COVID, the advent of these software companies utterly transformed America’s ability to weather a plague.

We should think more carefully about the value of free digital services.

Noah Smith is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist.

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