Investors watching & waiting
Well here we are headed into those lazy hazy days. Can you believe it, the year is almost half over?
The markets have kind of been in a funk with not much happening. Overall we are positive so this is a good thing.
The Dow Jones industrial average, as I write this Friday morning, is up about 2 percent for the year. The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up about 3 percent and change.
The smaller stocks have actually been doing well. The Nasdaq Composite is up around 7 percent as is the Midcap 400. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks is up around 6 percent.
As I look around the world, if you leave out the U.S., the larger stock markets are averaging a 7 percent return. So it’s not like we are not making any money: there are pockets of decent returns.
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I think that the investors I know have a blasé attitude. I follow the professional and institutional investors, and most of what I am getting from them is that they are taking a wait-and-see attitude.
Most money managers like trends. They like to see a direction. Right now we seem to be in a holding pattern. Up one day and down the next.
Many managers, mutual fund and otherwise, are holding some cash. I call it dry powder.
They are waiting for something to happen, good or bad. If the market goes down, they want to have some cash to buy on the cheap. If it goes up, they want to see that trend before committing.
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Here’s the deal. We are heading into what normally seems to be a slow period. Summer months are not too exciting most years.
Everyone is still waiting for the market to correct. That may not happen. Secular bull markets could sometimes go on for years. That is OK with me.
Or we could start a downtrend and have an adjustment.
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The market is really fragmented now. The transportation stocks, which were on fire, have turned stale. That worries many professionals.
This is an interesting time. There are thoughts by some that it is possible that the stock market and the bond market could go down. That normally doesn’t happen.
But as I said, no one knows so standby and we’ll find out. One thing about it, no one knows what is going to happen which is why I like this business.
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So, Howie, what should I be doing? Well, I’ll tell you. This is a perfect time to meet with your adviser and see what is cooking.
Bring them up to date on your upcoming financial needs. Weddings, new car, whatever. Take a look at your portfolio structure and see how you have positioned your risk.
There are something like 9,000 people a day turning 65, and this will go on for over 15 years.
The baby boomers are not only coming, they are here. Many of them have had no adviser to help them and they can see the light at the end of the proverbial tunnel and it scares them.
Retirement! Do I have enough money? Can I retire?
My advice is that there are a whole bunch of you out there and you need help. Talk to other investors and see if you can get a recommendation, a referral.
I think that heading into retirement without help is not wise. Find somebody you like and trust and develop a plan. Don’t be afraid.
I find that being cautious and prudent is wise. Don’t be silly; have your expectations under control.
People in my business can normally help you with all your fears. You just need to find the right person.
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I did get a laugh the other day. Greece is now again affecting our market.
Its economic condition is almost funny. I read somewhere that Greece has the GDP of Dallas-Fort Worth. How can a country that size affect our markets? Good question.
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I was hiding out in the Man Cave the other day when in popped my spouse wondering what I was up to. I told her I was getting ready for the Mensa mixer.
She didn’t believe that so I told her that I was wondering about my attack on increasing my net worth, I need more money.
I told her that David Lee Roth, a great American, once said that money would not buy happiness but it would buy you a yacht big enough to get right up alongside it.
Now she thought that was funny.
Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.
