Some states are showing surpluses
WASHINGTON — It’s shaping up to be a tough financial year for many states. At least 30 of them have budget shortfalls, and President Donald Trump’s promises to scrap the Affordable Care Act and overhaul the federal tax code have created fiscal uncertainty.
But whatever happens in Washington, some states will be well positioned to deal with it without raising taxes or making deep spending cuts.
California, Georgia, Idaho and Utah are among the states that have put themselves on a solid fiscal footing by avoiding deep tax cuts, enacting targeted tax increases, and diverting some surplus money into “rainy day” funds to be tapped in leaner times.
By taking those steps, and by forgoing the temptation to rely on a single revenue source, those states are in good financial shape heading into this year’s legislative sessions. Their strategies may be instructive for other states.
Elizabeth McNichol, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said the key is “to plan ahead and have a rainy-day fund, specifically tied to the volatility of your specific tax system.”
McNichol pointed to states like California and Massachusetts, which mandate that if a budget surplus is large enough, a portion of it must be added to the state’s rainy day fund. And it helps to be cautious in projecting how the economy will perform, the amount of revenue that will come in, and what the state will be able to afford to spend.
In California, for instance, Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown is proposing increasing his state’s rainy day fund to $7.9 billion from $6.7 billion, even though he projects a $1.6 billion shortfall in his proposed $179.5 billion budget. Instead of tapping reserves to close the gap, Brown wants to slow school spending growth and roll back a series of one-time expenses.
A cautious Brown is expecting a $5.8 billion downturn in revenue growth. And he’s bracing for the possibility that Trump and the Republican majority in Congress will cut federal income taxes deeply and scrap the Affordable Care Act.
“We can’t budget something that hasn’t happened yet,” Brown told reporters. “That’s why we have to hang on to our hat here.”
Another step states can take to avoid a budget crisis is to not cut taxes too deeply even when it appears economic times are good or getting better.
Take Georgia, for instance. It has a surplus. That’s partly because Georgia’s economy is growing faster than much of the rest of the nation.
But Georgia also resisted cutting taxes in recent years, while modestly projecting revenue and diverting excess amounts into the state’s rainy day fund, said Wesley Tharpe, research director at the progressive Georgia Budget and Policy Institute.
As a result, Republican Gov. Nathan Deal is proposing a record $25 billion budget for next year that is based on projected revenue growth of 3.6 percent. The budget calls for increases in spending for law enforcement personnel and educators, a couple of big-ticket infrastructure projects — and no tax increases.
