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OTHER VOICES

It's October, investors. Should you be afraid? This is the month that produced the great stock market crash of 1929. The month of the "Black Monday" crash of 1987.

October comes with a bad rep. Investors even have a term for it: Octoberphobia.

So does Wall Street hold its breath until All Saints' Day? Nah. Aside from the occasional crash, October hasn't really been all that bad. And the other 11 months of the year hardly have been immune from market swoons.

The honor for the worst one-day drop in the Dow average goes to December — Dec. 12, 1914, to be specific, when the stock market reopened after being closed for more than four months following the outbreak of World War I. It promptly dropped 24.39 percent that day.

The highest one-day point declines for the Dow are held by September and April, respectively. The Dow declined 684.81 points Sept. 17, 2001, after being closed for four days in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks; on April 14, 2000, the Dow dropped 617.78 points.

Yes, October can lay claim to some of the biggest market disasters, but it also can boast two of the biggest one-day point gains (both in 2002) and three of the biggest one-day percentage gains (in 1931, 1929 and 1987).

As snapshots go, this October has been a pretty picture. On Oct. 9, the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index soared to record highs.

Trends matter more than one-day records, of course. The day after the crash of Oct. 29, 1929, the Dow soared more than 12 percent. Two days after the 1987 crash, it rose more than 10 percent. But 1929 ushered in the Great Depression, while the 1987 crash was followed by more bull market.

All in all, there has been little reason for Octoberphobia. The Stock Trader's Almanac says S&P 500 stocks have had a cumulative gain of 35.4 percent over the last 15 Octobers. That's second only to November's 36.5 percent gain. The worst two months over the last 15 years have been August (11.1 percent decline) and February (6.3 percent decline). But you never hear about Februariophobia. Just trying to pronounce it; we can guess why.

Just one more set of numbers to poke a hole in Octoberphobia. If you had invested $1,000 in the Dow the morning after the 1987 crash, you would have $13,331.59 today, an annualized return of 13.84 percent, not adjusted for inflation.

The bottom line: There may be plenty of reasons — housing markets, oil prices, Middle East turmoil — for Wall Street to get spooked these days, but the calendar on your wall isn't one of them.

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