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Market good in past 6 months

Sometimes I like to look at what I said in the past to see whether I had a clue.

In the March 8 Butler Eagle, I wrote my normal monthly column. I don't know that we can describe anything I do as normal; however, little did I know, it was literally the bottom of the market so far in 2009.

Anyway, I talked about "what if?" Any prices or returns I use in the column, unless otherwise indicated, are as of the end of the trading day Aug. 31.

What if we bought the stocks that looked like they would be the last thing anyone would want to buy? I wasn't recommending it; I was just talking out loud.

I started with RSP, which is the Rydex Equally weighted S&P 500 stock index. No one wanted to own the stock market.

Anyway, RSP was trading at $21.17. It is now $35.54, up 67 percent,

Commodities were in the tank, and oil was plummeting. I pointed out that the Barclays AIG Commodity index, DJP, was trading at $31.65. It is now $37.84, up 19 percent.

I talked about the SPDR Real Estate Index, RWR. I guarantee you none of you wanted real estate. It was trading at $24.35, and now it is $43.03, up 76 percent.

Lastly, I mentioned the SPDR DBW Bank Index symbol KBE. It was trading at $10.79; it is now $23.53, up 118 percent.

Now, let us assume you are a contrarian and you bought those stocks and put equal amounts of money in them. You would be up about 70 percent in six months.

———

Here comes September, which is normally the worst month for the market during the year. According to the Bespoke Investment Group, the Dow has averaged a decline in September over the last 100, 50 and 20 years. Aren't I just a ray of sunshine?

The market pundits on the telly are talking about this phenomenon as I write. Maybe because they are harping about it, we won't see it. Contrarian again.

———

Let us take a look at where we are after eight months of 2009. This is not bad.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8.7 percent, The Standard and Poor's 500 is up 13.9 percent and the NASDAQ is screaming along up 28.6 percent. Much of this happened in July, but who cares?

The Russell 2000, an index of smaller stocks, is up 16.1 percent, and the S&P MidCap 400 index of mid-sized companies is up 23.2 percent. The index I like to look at for a representation of most stocks traded is the Wilshire 5000, and it is up about 17 percent.

Some market pundits are saying the rally has been in "junk" stocks or the stocks that were beaten down the most. I would say that is probably true. As I think back, that is likely the way it works after a bear market.

Many of those pundits are also saying this is a bear market rally. If that is the case, it was a heck of a rally.

The S&P 500 is up about 53 percent since March 9. Normally, many of us call a market that goes up about 20 percent a bull market. Whatever it was, I am in favor of it.

Outside the United States in the foreign markets, according to The Wall Street Journal, the Dow Jones Global Index, not including the U.S., is up more than 27 percent. Gold is up about 8 percent year to date. Oil is up 63 percent, and natural gas is down 46 percent.

Commodities, as measured by the DJ-UBS Commodity Index, is up 9 percent, lagging the overall stock markets.

———

So as Mad dog and I were leaving the Mensa ice cream social the other night, she asked me, "Ok, so now what do I do?" She knows I always know.

I think if you have a diversified investment account containing both stock market related investments and nonrelated investments, you should do just fine. Make sure you have an adviser who understands those choices, and make sure he or she is talking to you.

Make sure you understand the risks. Make sure you also understand that without risk, it is highly unlikely you will get a reward.

The last 10 years have not rewarded most of us who invest in the stock market. Historically, when the markets have had negative returns for a 10-year cycle, the next 10 years have been good ones. I am in favor of that.

If you have questions for me, you can e-mail Howie.Pentony@uvestfinancial.com or e-mail me on www.NexTierWealth.com.

———

And finally, W.C. Fields walked into a bar and said to the bartender, "Did I spend $200 in here drinking last night?" The bartender told him he had. W.C. said, "Thank goodness, I thought I lost the money."

Howie Pentony is a Butler financial adviser, UVEST Financial Services member, FINRA/SIPC.

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