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Bull market is great, but remain cautious

At the end of January, Dan Sullivan, who writes the Chartist investment newsletter, said “This is a powerful bull market make no mistake about it.”

Since the market lows that were set around March 9, 2009, the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index is up about 125 percent. Last year, the markets were up about 15 percent, and through January this year, the Wilshire 5000 Index of most stocks traded is up 5.6 percent.

The stats I use, unless otherwise indicated are through January.

The Standard and Poor’s 500 had its best January since 1997. The Dow had its best January since 1989.

Most of the market averages are within striking distance of their record highs set in October 2007. Yeah, the highs were not in the meltdown year of 2008 but in 2007. Many people don’t realize that the markets had started down more than a year before our financial mess was exposed.

As usual, the markets knew something.

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Once again the Mid-Cap stocks, or the midsized companies, are leading the way up more than 7 percent. The S&P 500 is up 5.2 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 5.8 percent.

Small stocks also are doing well as measured by the Russell 2000, which is up 6.2 percent.

Around the world things also are looking better with Britain having its best January in 24 years as an example.

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It appears that individual investors, who have been taking money out of stocks and putting them in bonds, now have decided it’s time to buy stocks. In January, stock mutual fund purchases were higher than they have been in a decade.

Man, it just doesn’t get any better does it?

That makes me nervous. Most investors get more enthusiastic when markets climb higher. I get more cautious shall we say. Not negative, just cautious.

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There are lots of reasons the markets could climb much higher. There is a ton of cash out there stuffed in accounts making virtually nothing.

Our financial institutions are in much better shape than they were in 2008. Many of their balance sheets could be the best ever.

Fixed income investors could be tired of the returns they are earning on bonds when they see the markets up about 16 percent in the past year. Bond prices have been weakening, and if that continues, it might kick money out of bonds and into stocks.

Corporations are flush with cash. If they ever get some confidence in our government, that could spur hiring and kick the economy even higher.

I just can’t see that happening. I don’t think that corporations are going to rush out there and hire.

Generally, the business people I talk to don’t trust our president and our Congress, Republicans and Democrats.

They have no clue as to what our politicians are going to force them to do. Things like health care and more regulations.

“What am I going to be forced to pay for?” That’s what business is asking.

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In years gone by, 4 percent unemployment was perceived as 100 percent employment. Everyone had a job who wanted one.

If unemployment ever gets to even 5.5 percent, I want you to call me and point that out.

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In the Monday USA Today’s Money section there was an article dealing with what has been going on with stocks since the high of the stock market on Oct. 19, 2007, through the end of January.

Of the 30 stocks in the Dow, only 16 are higher than they were on that October day. Fourteen stocks are lower, some considerably.

Some of the stocks that are up considerably include McDonalds, Coco-Cola, Chevron and IBM. Those stocks are all up from 25 to 75 percent from the top. Pretty impressive.

Some of the stocks that had not gotten back to even yet include Intel, Boeing, AT&T, Verizon, Cisco, GE and Bank of America, which is down about 70 percent since the high.

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In looking at prices of things you and I use, and starting Jan. 1, it is much too early to spot a trend for the year.

Much like the markets, in the commodity arena cattle prices are down, corn is up, gold is down a little, silver is up, natural gas is down, hogs are up, crude oil is about even and soybeans are up.

By the way, February is not historically a good month for the markets.

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The wife glided into the man cave the other day and said to me “I see our neighbor kiss his wife goodbye every day before he leaves. Why don’t you do that?”

I said, “Honey, I don’t even know her.”

She doesn’t think I’m funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg portfolio manager.

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