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Timing is not an exact science

This is 2014, wow. I’m writing this on New Year’s Day.

I’ve been thinking, which can be detrimental, that I have been in this business for almost four decades. I read the other day that John Belushi has been dead for 31 years. Joan Jett and the Blackhearts recorded one of my favorite songs, “I love Rock and Roll” also 31 years ago.

When I got in this business, the Dow Jones industrial average was about 700. Now it’s 16,000. My timing was good.

But timing a successful entrance and exit from the stock market is impossible to do on a regular basis. I remember that we had made a lot of money in early 1987. I took a bunch of profits in May and June and had a whole bunch of cash.

Then the market went straight up from there over the next three months and I looked like an idiot. Until October. The Market Crash of ’87 saved me. I looked brilliant and did nothing to discourage the view.

It’s all about timing boys and girls, and you cannot time it consistently. So sayeth the Howie Pentony stock market rule No. 876.

———

Spectacular is the only thing you can say about 2013. I mean, bad news after bad news and the market just kept going up.

As I said, I’ve been around for a while, and I’ve never seen anything like it. The Wilshire 5000 index of most stocks traded was up almost 34 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average total return was 29.65 and the Standard and Poor’s 500 total return was 32.39 percent.

The Nasdaq Composite price change was 38.32 percent. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks total return was up 38.82 percent and the S&P Midcap 400 total return was 33.5 percent.

As my friend would say, “Them are some big numbers.”

The EAFE index of foreign stock market returns was up around 23 percent. Isn’t that interesting? If you held a diversified portfolio of stocks that included the foreign market you were hurt by a 23 percent return.

Normally those markets beat the U.S. on average so this was somewhat unusual.

If you held bonds, you were hurt by the bond market returns that were all over the place depending on what you owned. Generally short and intermediate corporate bonds did OK but most other bonds were down so that also was a drag on your performance. We’ve been spoiled by bond market returns over the past four or five years.

In the commodity area Gold was down 28 percent to around $1,202 per ounce, Silver was off 35 percent to close around $16 an ounce. Corn was down 40 percent; wheat 22 percent; soybeans 7 percent; coffee 23 percent; cocoa was up about 20 percent while sugar was down 16 percent.

I’ve been a big believer that food prices are going up, but this year we got a little relief.

———

So what happened? Well stocks seemed to be the best game in town. Commodities were basically lower, gold and silver bombed, U.S. oil was up about 7 percent and natural gas was up 26 percent but that was from really low prices. The bond market was no place to hide.

Most people did not make the Wilshire 5000 return of about 34 percent because they were diversified. That’s not a bad thing; it’s the story of being an investor.

———

I like stock market investors. I admire their courage. I feel badly for people who don’t have that courage.

Many investors are still shell shocked from 2008 and 2009. I get that, but it was four years ago.

There is a really good chance that the stock market will go down again one of these days. Since the low of March 2009 the S&P 500 is up about 177 percent so most people who stayed in probably have a good bit more than they had on March 9, 2009, which is generally recognized as the bottom.

The losers are the people who sold during that time. I remember that some investors were told not to even look at their statements. Those who didn’t look most likely didn’t sell and psychologically it helped.

As in life, investors like us don’t know what is going to happen. It’s not that we don’t care, we just have overwhelmingly positive attitudes I think. And positive attitudes are good.

———

The wife came into the Man Cave the other day. I said, “I thought you were going shopping?”

She said “I changed my mind.”

And before I could help myself, I said, “Does the new one work any better?”

Suddenly, a small gash appeared on my forehead. Apparently, she did not think that was funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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