NBA shows why we can't go back to normal yet
As omicron cases rise rapidly, there are urgent questions about how aggressively we should respond.
But the sudden surge in cases has given fresh impetus to those who believe the time has come to normalize COVID, treating it much as we would colds and the flu, and simply proceed with life. Proponents of this approach tend to believe that omicron cases are milder, a possible but not confirmed scenario.
I would like to consider why COVID liberalization — in essence making a decision to let the virus run its course without imposing major restrictions on daily activities — generally isn’t possible at the institutional level.
To illustrate the challenges, let’s consider the NBA, one of the boldest and most innovative actors during the COVID era. The league shocked America when it called a halt to the season on March 11, 2020, well ahead of the curve. That summer, the NBA staged playoffs in the bubble, using innovative COVID testing to keep participants safe. It wasn’t obvious in advance that this was going to work, but the league pulled it off. Yet if the NBA were to make a similarly bold move now and announce it would stop testing players and no longer sit out the ones with asymptomatic COVID infections, the situation quickly would prove untenable. That’s because the NBA, like most large organizations, is too intertwined with other institutions that would object.
For instance, television advertisers might worry their products were advertised during what many would see as a “COVID-irresponsible” event. Cities also are partners of NBA teams, and some might refuse to go along with this new arrangement, especially in states with multiple teams, such as California and New York, that have implemented aggressive policies to blunt COVID. At the very least, it would be difficult for the league to commit to a predictable schedule.
I genuinely can see the case that the NBA ought to make the leap and return to normalcy, as most players and other employees might end up getting COVID anyway. Possible restrictions don’t seem to be buying much in terms of sustainable benefits, and life, after all, must go on. Still, if I were advising the NBA, I couldn’t bring myself to recommend a policy of normalization. There is simply no way to quickly coordinate the NBA and its affiliates on a new COVID stance. And if omicron did turn out to be as dangerous as delta, liberalization would be seen as a huge mistake.
Many of my friends are angry and frustrated that the world can’t simply move on and treat COVID like any other illness.
At the individual level, this will sometimes be possible, depending on your level of vulnerability and those you associate with. But to the extent some of our large organizations take the plunge and try to get back to normal, they may find they lose the public’s already-wobbly confidence.
Just as it is too late to stop omicron, it is too late to stop omicron closures, which themselves can be thought of as a kind of contagious virus. We are inheriting institutions that have battled COVID for almost two years now, and many of their motor responses are already built in. If you wish to liberalize America, focus on how we can have a fresh new start after the forthcoming four to eight weeks of chaos are over.
Tyler Cowen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at George Mason University and writes for the blog Marginal Revolution.
