NEW YORK — The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, forecasts that holiday sales will rise between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent even as uncertainty looms over an escalating trade war with China.

The holiday sales forecast, announced Thursday, marks an increase from the disappointing 2.1 percent growth seen in the November and December 2018 period that came well short of the group’s prediction. Last year’s holiday sales were hurt by turmoil over President Donald Trump’s trade policy with China and a delay in data collection by nearly a month because of a government shutdown. This year’s holiday forecast is above the average holiday sales growth of 3.7 percent over the previous five years.

The group expects online and other nonstore sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 11 percent and 14 percent, for the holiday period.

The predictions come as the economy and the job market are still strong. But Trump’s trade war with China could derail economic growth. In fact, U.S. factory activity shrunk for the second straight month in September and reached a 10-year low, renewing fears of a recession and triggering a broad stock market drop.

“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric.”