Butler County can’t seem to steer clear of the political headlines.

In the nearly two years since Pennsylvania helped send President Donald Trump back to the White House and an election cycle where an assassination attempt against Trump put Butler at the forefront, politics and policy did not fade from the headlines.

A national spotlight once again comes to Butler County with the midterm election just days away. This time, all eyes are on the rematch between Democratic state Rep. Brandon Dukes and Republican candidate Scott Timko for the state’s 12th House District seat.

Dukes had won the seat in an August special election by a mere 88 votes, putting a Democrat in the seat that had been under longtime Republican control.

Reporters, analysts, pundits and those watching the numbers are asking questions: Will the election be a blue wave? And if so, how deep will it go? Or, will it be a trickle, leaving political control relatively unchanged? Can we even trust the polling numbers any more?

It could all come down to turnout, which is expected to be high across Butler County’s contested elections.

Chantell McCurdy, director of the elections bureau, said it had already received more than 15,500 mail-in ballots out of about 20,000 applications countywide on Wednesday, Oct. 28. The bureau expects it will receive thousands more.

And thousands more still will show up Tuesday to cast in-person ballots.

“That area of the county seems to be pretty hot right now,” McCurdy said. “I imagine, I hope, that we’ll have pretty good turnout in those areas.”

The county’s partisan makeup is still consistent with its history as reliably Republican. As of Oct. 23, Butler County has 144,545 registered voters, according to the bureau of elections.

Just over 57.5% of those are registered Republicans. And just 27.46% are registered Democrats. Another 20,000 voters are registered as “other.”

Those numbers check out. Butler County’s support for Trump up to this point has been consistent. In the past three presidential elections, Trump has won roughly 65% of the vote in Butler County each time.

Meanwhile, the 16th Congressional District, which runs from the Butler-Allegheny border to Erie, has voted for Rep. Mike Kelly by greater than 10 percentage points all but one time since 2012.

The 12th state House District, which covers Adams, Cranberry and Jackson townships; and Callery, Evans City, Harmony, Mars, Valencia and Zelienople boroughs, was reliably Republican for years. Trump won the district by 18 percentage points in 2024.

It swung from a 29 percentage point win by former Rep. Stephenie Scialabba in 2024 to an 88-vote win by Dukes in August 2026.

But the special election only saw a 32% turnout.

While high for a special election, midterm elections will bring many more voters to weigh in on the rematch between Dukes and his Republican opponent, Timko.

Both have support from their respective party members with state and national influence.

Timko has received endorsements from U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, District Attorney Rich Goldinger, Sheriff Mike Slupe and various conservative advocacy groups. His website highlights cutting taxes, being tough on crime and illegal immigration and keeping tax dollars local as priorities.

Dukes has received endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro, other Democratic figures such as Pete Buttigieg and groups such as the Pennsylvania Working Families Party while focusing on infrastructure funding, affordability and public education funding.

The results in the 12th could have implications for control of the state House of Representatives, depending on how things play out. The seat is one of several considered a tossup, while the current breakdown of the House is 103-100 in Democrats’ favor.

Under less of a spotlight in Butler County are the race between Republican Rep. Aaron Bernstine, R-8th, and political outsider, Rick Telesz, and the contest between Republican Rep. Marci Mustello, R-11th, and a write-in candidate. Kathy Smith, who has the backing of Butler County Democrats as a write-in candidate, is running against Mustello.

Neither Bernstine or Mustello have historically faced strong Democratic opposition in the election results for either of their districts.

In a Pennsylvania poll that showed Trump at 37% approval rating, Shapiro is up by 30% in his reelection campaign against state Treasurer Stacy Garrity while also trying to gain control of the Pennsylvania Senate, achieving a Democratic trifecta.

“I must tell you, I’m more energized today than ever before,” Shapiro told the Eagle on Sept. 17.

Regardless of what the polling says, both are campaigning hard. Both have appeared in Butler County and have taken time to interview with the Butler Eagle.

When Garrity sat down with the Eagle on Aug. 28, she touted her campaign focus of affordability and policies meant to grow the economy, such as cutting red tape and “unleashing” energy resources in Pennsylvania. She criticized Shapiro’s handling of the state’s economy while hitting back at Shapiro’s portrayal of her as pro data center, accusing the governor of flip-flopping on the issue.

“We’re on the move, 24/7. Everywhere we go, people seem to be really resonating with our message. Because right now, we rank 47th out of 50 states, economically,” Garrity said, citing a number frequently pulled from U.S. News & World Report that ranks Pennsylvania as the 40th best state overall. “People can feel it. We have the fifth-highest tax burden in the nation.

“Everything is more expensive under Josh Shapiro,” she continued.

When Shapiro visited Butler County, he focused on the idea of people being “sick and tired of the status quo” and the “chaos and cruelty of the corruption we are seeing in Washington, D.C.” He targeted Trump, plus other Republicans such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., over their handling of the measles outbreak in Pennsylvania.

The stakes are high. If Democrats win the Senate and give Shapiro a governing trifecta, he pledged to Butler County Democrats that the first thing the party would do is raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Other actions include “protect the union way of life,” “enshrine in the law protections for women to make decisions over their own bodies” and “build more affordable housing.”

On one side, Kelly, an incumbent that’s served 16 years in the House of Representatives, is touting his experience and ability to bring in tax dollars for local projects.

In a previous interview, Kelly told the Eagle he has brought $3.1 billion in federal funding to the district since he’s been in office. This includes funds for large infrastructure projects, notably work on Route 228, which Kelly has worked with Butler County commissioners and other local officials to push to the finish line.

Kelly also points out he is competing against 434 other members of the House of Representatives, and 100 senators, for federal funds on local projects.

On the other side is Justin Wagner, a newcomer hoping to ride a wave of Democratic enthusiasm while running a populist campaign focused largely on affordability.

Wagner’s campaign website includes positions like “make taxation fair again,” “guarantee a living income,” strong support of unions, expanding Medicare, a moratorium on data centers, banning Flock cameras, opposing “endless wars” and opposing AIPAC.

Other national headlines featuring Butler County politics

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This isn’t the first time, and won’t be the last time, Butler County has a relevance to national politics.

Outside of the July 2024 assassination attempt and following election, here’s a number of other times the Butler Eagle covered issues that also were under the national spotlight.

• Marc Fogel released from Russian imprisonment, returning to celebration and tears of joy.
• DOGE looking to terminate the government’s leases with multiple Butler County locations, following interest in its operations from Elon Musk, only to reverse course.
• SNAP benefits going unpaid due to a federal government shutdown, impacting over 15,000 residents and resulting in abnormally large food lines.
• No Kings Protests occurring nationwide came to Butler County, resulting in thousands of residents demonstrating in towns across the county over multiple protests.
• Statewide budget impasses leading to schools, nonprofits and other organizations desperate for funds amid impending budget shortfalls.
• Local officials launching a full-court press for federal funds to complete crucial portions of the Route 228 project. Sen. Dave McCormick, R-PA, and Rep. Mike Kelly, R-16th, spoke with federal officials on potential grant funding, which was recently denied as local officials push forward.
• The immigration issue made its way to Butler, from ICE raids shutting down local Mexican restaurants to the Carrizalez family being forced out of America.
• Residents revolted over a data center proposal in Forward Township, mirroring sentiments across America.
• A Cranberry-area special election resulting in partisan swings large enough, close enough to the midterm, to draw attention from national outlets like CNN and Newsweek.