Oil rises with elusive outlook for US-Iran deal over Hormuz
Oil rose as a U.S.-Iran standoff over the crucial Strait of Hormuz dragged on, prolonging an unprecedented supply shock that has roiled energy markets.
Brent rose more than 3% above $114 a barrel. In the latest escalation of rhetoric, President Donald Trump said “Iran can’t get their act together” in a social media post with an image of him holding a assault weapon, against the backdrop of explosions and the title “No more Mr. Nice Guy!”
The two sides have been locked in an impasse over peace talks, while flows of crude, natural gas and oil products from the Persian Gulf remain cut off since the conflict began in late February. The crisis has sent prices of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel surging, raising inflation fears around the world.
Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade of Iranian ports, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. officials. In recent meetings, the president has opted for continuing to squeeze Iran’s economy and oil exports, the report said. He assessed that other options, including the resumption of bombing, carried more risk.
“The stalemate could last for weeks,” Michelle Brouhard, the head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, told Bloomberg Television, “It’s either gonna be the global market tells Trump that we can’t take this shortage of oil any longer, or it’s gonna be Iran who says we want to be able to get our oil out.”
A ceasefire has held since early April but recent diplomatic efforts to get negotiators from the two sides to meet have so far failed. CNN reported on Tuesday that mediators expect Iran would submit a revised proposal to end the war in the next few days, citing people close to the process.
The American naval blockade appears to be putting pressure on Tehran. The nation is rapidly running out of crude storage space, which is threatening to accelerate production cuts, according to Kpler Ltd.
The U.S. is also ramping up pressure on Iran via other means. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has warned financial institutions of sanctions risks on Chinese oil refiners — mostly independent processors in Shandong province — over ties with the Islamic Republic. One of China’s largest private oil refiners was sanctioned over its links to Iran.
The Treasury Department has also issued “firm guidance” warning of significant sanctions exposure related to paying a “toll” to the Iranian government to gain passage through Hormuz. Tehran has been seeking to enact a national law to formalize a payment system for ships crossing the waterway.
The conflict has led to the United Arab Emirates deciding to leave OPEC next month after six decades of membership. The UAE said the shortage caused by the war will require agility to respond to market demands without being constrained by the collective decision-making process by the wider group.
“Traders now focus on the next steps in peace talks and today’s U.S. inventory report for further signs of how quickly U.S. stockpiles are falling amid robust export demand,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz prolongs a disruption that continues to tighten global energy markets.”
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