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Census delays pose risks for legislative map drawing

WASHINGTON — The Census Bureau’s new plan for a delayed 2020 census — if the agency can pull it off — could mean chaos for states drawing new legislative maps next year.

Hamstrung by the coronavirus pandemic, the Census Bureau has proposed starting major field operations in June and delivering the final data for map drawing four months after its current Dec. 30 deadline. That would require a change in law for apportionment, and potentially more appropriations for a process that has already been budgeted $15.6 billion.

Even if the Census Bureau meets the new timeline, states such as Virginia, New Jersey and Texas that have to draw new maps in 2021 may not meet their own deadlines, according to New York Law School professor Jeff Wice.

Wice, who has worked on redistricting cases tied to the last five census cycles, said he’s never encountered anything like this.

“This is really uncharted, unprecedented territory for the census,” Wice said. “I hope no one tries to use this to partisan advantage.”

Both Virginia and New Jersey have legislative elections in 2021 and Texas may have to send its state legislative map to a commission of state officials because of a constitutional deadline tied to its legislative session. Beyond that, Wice said the delay increases the chance that states will try and use old maps or draw them based on other data such as citizenship or registered voters.

“There are a lot of questions up in the air. There is no precedent for any of this and there is no one-size-fits-all because of different laws and rules for each state,” Wice said.

For its new plan, the agency would spin up operations again in June, send out hundreds of thousands of door-knockers in August and wrap up counting in October. Then it would send the new congressional seat allocations next April, followed by the detailed data for new maps in July.

The Census Bureau has asked for a 120-day extension to its statutory deadline, according to a Democratic aide for the House Oversight and Reform Committee. The administration will brief all members of the committee next week, the aide said, after a call with committee leaders Monday.

The delayed census process could end up missing people, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials’ Arturo Vargas. Undercounts in Hispanic and other areas would “detrimentally undermine the communities where they live for a decade.”

“We may end up with significantly malapportioned districts as a result of the data not representing the diversity in these communities,” Vargas said.

Once the census numbers come in, there may be little states or individuals can do to change the results, according to Wice. The nation’s courts have generally rejected challenges to the Census Bureau’s process or results, he said, making it unlikely the Supreme Court would jump in to second guess the agency’s decisions in the crisis.

“Courts can always change their decisions based on new facts, and we’re certainly taking a census in 2020 unlike any census in the nation’s history. I think one thing we are learning to do is expect the unexpected,” Wice said.

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