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Market run could go on

On July 1, I told myself that we should just shut the markets down for the rest of the year and take a Standard and Poor's 500 return of around 17 percent for the first six months and just go home.

Fortunately, no one listens to me, so we will just have to wait until December to see if I am right or wrong. I'm not saying the market will not continue along, but 17 percent is 17 percent.

Remember, I don't know any more than anyone else. Hey a 17 percent return is way above the S and P's average return over the years, so I was just saying.

As usual, this whole thing has been fun to watch.

Many of the money managers I talk to are like me. No clue. They guess, but they really don't know.

I call this the Trumpster Market because he started everything. Like him or hate him, reasonable people can see that. Key word “reasonable.”

Our unemployment numbers are low, manufacturing jobs are high, interest rates remain low, inflation is low and most companies are experiencing expanding profits. Having said all of that, what we do not know is the future.

That is why I like my job. I never know what tomorrow brings and it forces me to pay attention. Many people are waiting for a “correction” before committing new money. Those are the same people who sold in 2009 and never got back in. I'm not that smart.

Timing the market is impossible. Historically, if you owned the Dow Jones industrial average of the past 100 years or so it has been impossible to lose money. You just couldn't sell. We don't know if that continues into the future. That is the question.

Traditionally, a Bear Market has been a 20 percent sell-off. We have been really, really close, but not 20 percent.

I read an interesting piece the other day by a guy who thinks that this run could go on for years. He just thinks it is too strong to die. Then, I read another guy who says a crash is coming. Investors are faced with this kind of writing all the time. I think it's amazing that there actually are people with courage to invest.

What should you be doing here?

Well, if you have expenditures, wedding, new car, whatever, taking money out of investments at a high point, rather than at a low point is always a good idea. Investments may move higher true. But since no one knows, I just like to be sure that the money is there.

I rarely rebalance my account unless it is at years end. However, rebalancing here is probably not a bad idea.

Let's take a look at the numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial of 30 stocks is up around 14-plus percent. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index is up right around 18 percent.

The Nasdaq is booming up almost 22 percent. In the commodity area, gold is up a little over 8 percent, natural gas is down 22 percent, crude oil is up 30 percent (if you are wondering about gasoline prices) and the Dow Jones Commodity index is up 7.3 percent.

The Global Dow is lagging our markets at up 13 percent. Not bad, by the way, but still lagging. Russia is up 30 percent. China, believe it or not, is up 22 percent. Sweden, Switzerland and Germany are all up about 18 percent.

Interest rates stay low and mortgage rates are within half of 1 percent of the low. Should be good for the housing market. We'll just wait and see.

Things are almost too good here. Personally, I like it like this. The problem is that when I feel this good it may be time for an adjustment. We shall see. Have a good summer.

I was in the Man Cave the other day and the wife came bouncing in. “What are you doing?” she asked. I told her that I was working on my new exercise program where I am going to do 100 Diddly-Squats each and every day. She doesn't think I am funny.

Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.

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