Low voter turnout likely
Few Butler County voters made it to the polls for May's primary, and the county Bureau of Elections officials believe that will be the case Tuesday, despite more than 100 municipal and four county offices on the ballot.
Shari Brewer, director of the Butler County Bureau of Elections, said historically municipal election turnout is low and expects it to be about the same as the last municipal election four years ago — around the 20 percent mark.
Michael Coulter, a professor of political science at Grove City College, said he expects a low turnout because many races involved are uncontested or have no candidates running.
“When we study races, competitive races where candidates are spending money on ads and making voter contact, that always raises voter turnout,” he said. “In noncompetitive or uncontested races, that provides little incentive for voters to turn out.”
Ed Natali, Butler County Republican Committee chairman, said a low turnout is “not good for either party.”
“People should come out and exercise this process we have been blessed to have,” he said. “I wish more people were interested in being involved in municipal politics,” as those positions are the ones that have the biggest impact on the daily life of constituents.
Georgiann Kerr, chairman of the Butler County Democratic Committee, said “a lot of people don't know about the races unless they are really involved in politics, and it is very much a detriment.”
While it is common to have municipal seats uncontested in general elections, Coulter said in election cycles such as this, it is hard for “voters to see what's at stake.”
“Because there is a smaller number of voters in municipal elections, each vote has more impact,” he said. “Your vote could literally break a tie.”
Kerr urged residents to get out and vote.
“People don't think these elections are important, but in the long run they are more important as they involve the counties in which we live,” she said.
Brewer said absentee ballots are a good indicator of how an election will go, with the current cycle seeing 717 absentee applications and 528 of those returned as of Monday. Compared to the 2013, when 449 absentee ballots were returned, there's a total of 79 more absentee ballots returned in today's election.
However Brewer said registrations have increased over April's primary, where 124,584 voters were registered in the county — 39,813 Democrats, 67,958 Republicans and 16,813 others, which includes independents and other parties. As of Monday, she said a total of 125,042 voters were registered countywide, with 39,802 Democrats, 68,176 Republicans and 17,064 others.
In 2015, 26 percent of Butler County voters (26,890) cast a primary ballot, according to previous reports. In 2013, just 16 percent (16,782) participated in the primary election.
At the county level, with several row officers running unopposed — including clerk of courts, controller, coroner and sheriff — as well as “very few” contested races at the municipal level — that leaves the Butler City mayoral race as the election with the “most energy around it,” Natali said.
“I do believe that the race in the city has enough energy around it that turnout for that race will be higher than that average number across the county,” he said.
Natali said the party completely stands behind candidate Ben Smith, as well as all other Republican candidates, as “the right ones to move the city forward.”
“I think the city is on a cusp of really changing a direction that it's going to go,” he said.
Kerr said the mayoral race is also an important race for the Democratic party.
“The city needs a change in the mayor, and I believe the city could be run more efficiently,” she said.
Statewide, Coulter said the races with the most impact will be the judicial races, which could indicate how future elections will end up.
“If there is a strong support for Democrats, that could be a signal of what's coming in the next year's election,” he said. “If it is a sweep for Democrats in the statewide judicial races, that could indicate a rising Democratic tide.”
As far as Butler County races, Coulter said that with no commissioners seats or Court of Common Pleas races on the ballot, that “I don't think there is any race occurring within the county that will have major significance.”
