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Not much action in late summer market

I hate to say this but man this is like watching paint dry. As I write this the morning of the Aug. 31, there is not a whole lot going on.

As a matter of fact, we have not made much money in three months. The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up around 1.5 percent but heck that could be erased by the end of today.

We have had a pretty good run this year so resting for the summer is not necessarily bad.

Looking ahead, September historically has not been outstanding. Since 1950 we have had 29 up years and 38 down years. The average has been a minus 67 percent so not bad, just not good.

If you are looking for market action most of it has been in commodities.

I like to watch commodities. Whether it be food, metals or energy I’m interested.

Performance leaders so far, year-to-date include rice up 22 percent, feeder cattle up 17 percent, spring wheat up almost 15 percent, and live cattle up about 5 percent. In nonfood commodities copper is roaring ahead 22 percent, gold is up 13 percent, (around $1,300 an ounce) lumber is up around 10 percent and silver is up 8 percent.

Food prices overall have been falling. Oats are down 3 percent, hogs 5 percent, soybeans 6 percent, wheat 8 percent, cocoa 8 percent, (just what I need, cheaper chocolate), corn down 9 percent, milk 9 percent, coffee 11 percent, sugar 24 percent, (to put in the chocolate), and orange juice 29 percent.

Overall food prices are running in the consumer’s favor. We like that.

In nonfood commodities, crude oil is off about 17 percent which is trickling down to the gas pump, and natural gas continues weak off about 18 percent. Generally, consumers are pretty happy but oil and gas people are not.

OK, where are we in stock markets?

I like to look at the big picture. The Wilshire 5000 Total Market index is up a little over 10 percent. After eight months that is not a bad number for you and me. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up almost 13 percent. As you know that index is only 30 stocks and sometimes is not representative of what is really going on.

The Standard and Poor’s 500, which many investors favor, is up a little over 11 percent. Again, after eight months that is a good number. The small and midsized companies continue to lag the overall market.

I don’t like that very much but they don’t ask me. The Russell 2000 index of small companies is up only a little over 3 percent. The S&P Midcap 400 is up only 4.4 percent. Again, those numbers are not exciting and I would like to see improvement.

Most people I talk to who manage investments are gearing up for the October-April run, a period some refer to as months of seasonal strength.

When does the market show strength historically? Over the last 40 years, October, November, December, January, March and April have been the best 6 months for the market.

So why don’t we just sell all the other months and get on with it? Because no one knows when that period of strength won’t be strong.

As I tell everyone, no one knows what is going to happen. What I hope is that the market is substantially higher in 5 years.

If you are concerned about what the markets are going to do in the next few weeks or months then it is very difficult to be an investor. All I can say is that at this juncture the trend remains OK.

This is a great time to meet with your adviser. Find out what is happening. Look at your accounts and see where you are invested, what do you own?

I remember many moons ago I asked an investor, pointing at something on his brokerage statement from another firm, “What is this?” The investor looked at me and said “I have no idea.”

If you pay attention to anything I say, know what you own. You need to know and understand the basic risks. If the market goes down, what happens to this investment?

Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.

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