Markets rally early in year
Boys and girls, it does not get much better than this.
Take a long hard look at your statement this month. As I write this on Wednesday, after the Trumpster speech to Congress, the Dow Jones industrial average is up over 300 points.
No question, at least in my mind, that this has been a Trump rally.
He should be good for the economy. We shall see. I’m happy because all the crybabies are sad.
Through the end of February, year-to-date, the markets were up roughly 5 percent and change. The Nasdaq was up over 8 percent. The Standard and Poor’s 500, an index of larger companies, was up almost 6 percent.
There is no question that since the election the market has been on a run, a big run. No one that I know expected that. There were big warnings everywhere “If Trump wins, sell.”
That is why I love this business. No one has a clue what is going to happen, which means that you and I have a chance.
Commodities, etc.
Personally I think the big story has been in commodities. Commodities are generally things we use and maybe eat.
Let’s look at what we don’t eat.
Everyone asks about gold. It’s silver. Silver is up around 14 percent for the year. Gold is up 7, which is still good. Lumber is up almost 10 percent, cotton 9 percent.
Some of the edible stuff: Oats are up 14 percent, wheat almost 7 percent, soybeans 6 percent, cattle about 2½ percent and hogs are about even.
On the downside, natural gas is down 22 percent. orange juice down 14 percent, gasoline down 11 percent, milk is down more at 7 percent and crude oil down 4 percent.
For some reason, I seem to stay awake at night watching coffee — it is up almost 5 percent.
People ask me if I watch the news? Never.
The stock market tells me what is going on and I learn from that. When the markets tumbled in 2008-09 I figured “Something must be wrong.” Don’t laugh, it virtually is as simple as that.
Since the election I figured, “Something good is going on.”
Don’t make it any more difficult than that.
President Obama was likely the biggest anti-business president ever, but take a look what the market did during his time.
Granted it was low when he came in but still. It doesn’t make much difference if the Republicans or the Democrats are in control, markets do what they do. I gave up trying to figure it out a long time ago.
IRA time
This is IRA (Individual Retirement Account) time so don’t forget to contribute.
Remember you can be a year ahead in your contributions, if you want. It makes sense if you can afford it.
The contribution limit is $5,500 unless you are above age 50, then it is $6,500.
And if you are 70½ this year you must begin taking Required Minimum Distributions. Take the money, pay your taxes and don’t forget. Penalties are high.
Buy or sell?
People ask me whether I like buying or selling? Personally, I like to sell.
When you sell, you are now safe, the money is not at risk. If I make an investment believing I could make a 20 percent return, if I get my 20 I sell. Some investors struggle with that. “What if it goes higher?” I don’t worry about it.
If you sell in an up market — and this is key — you are almost always going to be wrong, at least over the short term. You cannot pick the top.
I sell when, and if, my investment has reached my goal for that investment. I like to sell when the market is going up. I hate selling when the market is going down.
My buddy tells the story of buying a stock at $5 a share. It went to $15. He sold. Subsequently it went to $50 a share.
“‘Why do I care,’ he said. ‘I tripled my money. I’ll take a triple every time.’”
In the man cave
I was basking in the man cave the other day when the wife came bounding in. She asked me why I was laughing.
I told her that I was reading about a book that accidentally became a million-copy seller.
“How did that happen?”
Well they misspelled a word by one letter.
“What was it?” she asked.
Well the title ended up being “How to change your wife.”
She doesn’t think I’m funny.
Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.
