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Trump's options to unravel ACA

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump can do plenty on his own to unravel the Obama health care law, but some of those actions would create disruptions that undermine his administration’s early promises. Other less sweeping steps could open the way for big changes, but might not get as much notice.

Suspending enforcement of tax penalties on people who remain uninsured would win Trump immediate cheers from the political right for taking down a widely unpopular requirement. But experts say it would destabilize insurance markets by allowing healthy people to opt out, raising costs for taxpayers and remaining consumers. It would also risk a protracted court battle.

Less visible but just as important, the administration appears to have wide latitude to let states experiment with Medicaid funds and other federal financing. That could provide a pathway for GOP-led states to try their ideas.

For now, the executive order that Trump signed Friday night has changed very little. Consumers can still sign up on HealthCare.gov. The IRS is enforcing fines on people who remain uninsured, as it reviews Trump’s order. Insurers are providing medical benefits defined in the Affordable Care Act.

“Right now we are very much in a waiting game, but I would expect movement soon,” said Nicholas Bagley, a professor at the University of Michigan Law School.

Bagley and a colleague have identified about 25 areas in which the Trump administration could act unilaterally, from a requirement that women employees of religious-affiliated nonprofits have access to free birth control, to fines on people remaining uninsured. The scope of the executive order will be an issue at today’s Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing for Trump’s health secretary pick, Georgia congressman Tom Price.

Still, there are practical and political limits on the administration. As the executive order made clear, changes to regulations have to follow a legally established process, which can take time. And actions that disrupt the insurance markets could backfire politically, because Trump has promised to provide insurance for everybody and lower costs, while other Republicans offered assurances they won’t “pull the rug out” from anyone currently covered.

Implementing changes would fall to three departments: Health and Human Services, Treasury, and Labor. Here’s a look at a few of the options.

Insurance mandate

The administration could decline to enforce the ACA’s requirement that most people carry health insurance, or it could add new “hardship” exemptions. For example, GOP lawmakers have called for an exemption in communities where only one health insurer continues to offer coverage.

Subsidy lawsuit

A federal district judge has agreed with House Republicans that the Obama health law lacks specific legal authority to pay insurers billions to reduce consumers’ deductibles and copayments. The case is on hold, but unresolved.

Birth control coverage

Under the health care law, women receive birth control at no additional cost as a preventive benefit. Houses of worship are exempt from the requirement, but women employees of church-affiliated nonprofits are covered. The new administration could rewrite the rules for nonprofits, or it could try to void the birth control requirement altogether.

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