It will take time to gauge 'Brexit' impact
It seems the question of the day is “What does ‘Brexit’ mean to us here in the U. S.?”
It is a great question that has no answer. We are not going to know the effects on us for at least months if not years.
British Prime Minister, David Cameron has said he will resign in September so government in Britain will be unstable as it will be in transition for several months.
The majority of the Brits voted to leave the European Union consisting of 28 countries, 27 if Britain actually leaves.
It appears that the “leave” vote was in large part due to the “migration crisis” as some people like to say. The influx of migrants, some point to Muslims, has apparently led to some shortages of goods and services as well as additional costs on the national medical care that Britain has.
Most of London and Scotland voted to stay. You and I might call them the city folks.
The northern part, call them the country folks, voted to hit the hills. I think we could call them angry people.
We have a very similar situation here in the U.S. with anger. It will be interesting to see how our people vote in the coming election.
Generally it means that Britain, should they implement Brexit, will have a border. It appears that the other 27 country’s citizens will no longer be able to freely travel to the U.K. They will need passports or visas or whatever.
That will definitely slow trade between the 27 and Britain.
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I think, I don’t know of course, that the European Union is in trouble. There are a lot of angry people in Europe. Other countries could vote to leave the union and that may just add to the problems.
Already I hear that some Brits are applying for dual citizenship. For instance, if you can prove that you have Italian in your family, you may be able to get Italian residency. Duel residency if you will.
That would make you, a Brit, still able to move around in the European Union.
Let me say this. No one knows what is going to happen. This is just so early.
I don’t think that the “leave” people knew what would happen if their vote was success, but I also don’t think they cared.
Who knows how long Britain will take to put Brexit into effect and withdraw from the European Union. It could be months. It could be a long time.
I can assure you that the “leave” people will not be happy with a prolonged stall.
That also will be interesting to watch.
In conclusion I have no clue what the long term affects will be. No one knows. Generally when something like this happens the stock market gyrations are short term. However, for instance, if Spain and France would also vote to “leave” that could affect the markets all over again.
I really think you could call it a mystery. I like mysteries. Sometimes they are fun to watch.
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The markets in the U.S. have kind of been a mystery so far this year. If it is not one thing, it is another. It seems to change almost daily.
As I write this mid week, the markets are close to being even for the year. The reality is that the markets have not made much progress since about November of 2014, about 20 months.
If you have not made any money recently, that is the deal.
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This is a good time to take a look at your investments. Do you know what you own, and are you comfortable with it?
Sometimes I have asked investors what they own and many have no clue.
This is not the time for that. Normally I use the summer to decide where one needs to be in the fall. I see no reason to change that direction.
Your plans should be long term, not short.
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The commodity markets are fun to watch. You would think that perhaps I need to get a life.
Oil has rallied from about 26 bucks a barrel to around 49 bucks so there has been a recovery. The problem remains that for the energy companies to be profitable, most of them anyway, the prices need to be about 20 percent higher.
There is a long way to go.
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The wife came into the Man Cave the other day and said, “You are looking mighty smug. What is going on?”
I said, “Well you know that two week supply of diet food that I bought; I just finished it off in 3 hours and 20 minutes.”
She doesn’t think I am funny.
Howie Pentony is a Portersville client portfolio manager.
