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Don't change game plan

Well, as Shakespeare said, “So far it’s been much ado about nothing.”

Investors get all excited about gains, and then get all excited about losses, then gains, then losses. Personally, I like standing pat.

It is the Chuck Knoll philosophy, which basically says that “Changing the game plan is a sign of panic, and panic is not in our game plan.”

Before I start selling a bunch of stuff, someone is going to have to tell me more than I ought to change my game plan. No question this feels like a market that ought to be sold. The problem is, as I write this, the market uptrend is still in place.

Obviously that can change, but so far it has not.

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We have gone since 2011 and have not had a 10 percent correction. Bear markets are normally signaled with 20 percent losses.

I would agree that we are way overdue, but where is it?

“Interest rates are going up and that will kill the market.” OK, where are they?

Granted, the bond market has not been a roaring bull but so far quality short term bonds are down slightly but no massacre.

No question that there are only a few stocks leading the charge. Many stocks are down more than 50 percent from their highs.

Just take a look at the energy sector. This year we are positive, but I don’t know a lot of people making a lot of money.

If you own individual stocks, you could look really smart or really dumb. If you owned the top three or four stocks this year, you look really bright. Otherwise…

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As I’ve said before, I like trends. So far, since 2009 the trend has generally been up. We had some sloppiness in 2011, but other than that it is been a hayride. Fairly comfortable but bouncy.

Health care, some banks, some techie stocks and, in general, financials like brokers and insurance have kept the market going this year.

In July we gained 8/10 of 1 percent on the Standard and Poor’s 500. Most of it came in the middle of the month. The strongest gainers were the mega stocks, the largest 50 stocks in the S and P. The smaller stocks just got mashed to some degree.

The biggies averaged a 2.9 percent gain, so that tells you how the small guys did.

The deal is that generally the stocks that have acted poorly the first half of the year continue to do so.

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In wisdom credited to the Dakota Indians, they said, “If you discover you are riding a dead horse, it is a good idea to dismount.” Smart people those Dakotas.

Anyway, what should we be doing? I love this time of year to gather up my ammo and make sure that I am loaded for where I think I should be for the fall.

Fall is here you know. Well it will be. Make sure that your asset allocation is where it makes you comfortable.

In my view, asset allocation is responsible for how much money you make and lose. If you are 100 percent in equities, stocks, and the market goes down 25 percent, then you likely lose 25 percent.

A lot of investors don’t understand what 25 percent is. If you don’t, just take your portfolio of, let’s say $500,000, and subtract 25 percent. Viola, you now have $375,000.

If that number is OK with you, fine. If it is not, then perhaps some changes are advisable.

I love this exercise. You should do it. Whatever your financial assets are, subtract 25 percent and see how it makes you feel. If it makes you feel kinda groggy, then you are probably fairly normal.

From an investment standpoint, California matters. The Silicon Valley matters. Otherwise, the only thing I can tell you for sure is that I am not going to live there. Gasoline is hovering around $4 a gallon. It’s due to all those crazy rules and regulations the state is known for. The income tax for those in the upper bracket is 13 percent. Those crazy guys.

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The wife came skating into the Man Cave the other evening and asked what I was doing. I told her that I was preparing for the Mensa Invitational Golf Tournament.

She asked me how I prepared.

I said, “All you have to do is use your brain to determine how you would play, the smarter you are the better the score, and there is no real playing involved. Already I am 17 under.”

She doesn’t think I’m funny.

Howie Pentony is a client portfolio manager in Portersville.

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