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Natural gas is cheap now, but prices are likely to rise

I am getting the same question from a lot of investors: “How can we play this Marcellus gas thing?”

Well, in many instances the answer is that you should have been asking that about a year ago. Some of those natural gas related stocks have done really, really well.

But I do have an opinion about natural gas. You have to remember that I don’t know any more than anyone else. My wife yells out that I know a lot about hot air. Har Har Har.

Anyway, this is the way I see things going. Natural gas is really a cheap commodity now. The price of natural gas is about $3.62 per thousand cubic feet. Not too long ago it was about four times higher.

At today’s price gas is cheap. It is making a run at oil and coal.

OK, so here is what I see happening. Every Tom, Dick and Harry is converting to natural gas. You see it every day. Now there are natural gas stations to fuel your natural gas vehicle, coal fired utilities are converting to natural gas.

Everybody loves natural gas. It is so cheap you gotta love it.

Think back in the past what has happened to many things that were really, really cheap? They got really, really expensive.

Why is NG going to get expensive? We are sitting on a whole bunch of gas here in the United States. Well, I’m OK with that until 2016 or 2017 and maybe before.

You have to remember that these guys drilling for gas are not stupid. Some of the major oil companies are now more than 50 percent natural gas. They also are not stupid.

I just read where a coal company sold all of its coal mines to concentrate on natural gas! Why is that? Because there’s money in “them thar wells.”

But trust me. It’s not at three bucks.

What I see happening is the demand increasing. Not only for the reasons stated above but there is another kicker. It’s called LNG, liquified natural gas, propane.

Propane is in high demand around the world. There are not many facilities that can convert natural gas to propane.

However, boys and girls, that is going to change dramatically in a couple of years. There is construction going on.

I noticed that a couple of shipping companies that transport propane across the oceans are ramping up their purchases of LP gas tankers. When these tankers are ready, about the time the processing plants in the U.S. are ready to go, natural gas prices could rise dramatically. If that happens, consumers in the U.S. are not going to be happy campers.

“We have all of this gas, why is the price going up?” Then we are going to hear: “You know natural gas is so high, why don’t we look at coal?”

Do me a favor. Cut this article out and save it for a couple of years and bring it to my attention then. I’m not a betting man, but.

———

The markets continue to fly.

But you already know that.

As of the close of business Wednesday night, the Wilshire 5000, a measure of most stocks traded in the U.S., was up 27.25 percent year-to-date from Jan. 1. Wow.

The Nasdaq Composite is up more than 30 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up about 19 percent.

In my opinion, the Dow is just not relative anymore.

———

I’m seeing new investors come out of the woodwork. New from the standpoint that some sold back around the beginning of 2009 and have watched the markets go up 160 percent while they are making one half of one percent in money market funds. Others are saying, “This stock market is really doing well, maybe I should get me some of that.”

I’m not bearish. Again, I don’t know any more than anyone else, but I think the markets could do well going forward. We’ll have to see if anyone does anything to derail our progress.

There is also little or no leadership in Washington, both parties included, so something going on there could hurt us.

———

The wife came into the Man Cave the other day as I was filling out an application. She wanted to know what the app was for. I told her it was for the Hokey Pokey Clinic.

What is the Hokey Pokey Clinic she asked with raised eyebrows?

I told her it was a place that you go to and see if you can turn yourself around.

She doesn’t think I’m funny.

Howie Pentony is a Saxonburg client portfolio manager.

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